Derby County and Cardiff City drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Derby County – Cardiff City): shots 15–16, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 1.62–1.98, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
This match
Match statistics
Derby CountyCardiff City
Shots15 shots16 shotsDerby County 15 shots, Cardiff City 16 shots
Shots on target7 shots7 shotsDerby County 7 shots, Cardiff City 7 shots
Expected goals1.62 xG1.98 xGDerby County 1.62 xG, Cardiff City 1.98 xG
Possession36%64%Derby County 36%, Cardiff City 64%
Corners7 corners7 cornersDerby County 7 corners, Cardiff City 7 corners
Fouls12 fouls10 foulsDerby County 12 fouls, Cardiff City 10 fouls
Yellow cards5 cards1 cardDerby County 5 cards, Cardiff City 1 card
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
Cardiff City← attackingattacking →Derby County
off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG
Derby County: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.66 xG. Cardiff City: 16 shots, 7 on target, 2.14 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
Derby County1.66 xGCardiff City2.14 xG
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 1.66 xG · Cardiff City 2.14 xG.
▲ led this metric● higher value (descriptive) too close
Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.79 days
Derby County / Cardiff City
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples2 / 2home / away teams
Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.
Known unknowns
Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4