PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari · Serie A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cagliari won 1–2.

Shots
225
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.311.1
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cagliari beat Atalanta 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Cagliari): shots 22–5, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.31–1.1, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta have a visible home split

weak

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match12 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAtalanta · Cagliari12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaCagliariBaseline
Shots12 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against20.5 shots/match18.8 shots/match15 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots5 shotsAtalanta 22 shots, Cagliari 5 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsAtalanta 4 shots, Cagliari 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.31 xG1.1 xGAtalanta 1.31 xG, Cagliari 1.1 xG
  • Possession62%38%Atalanta 62%, Cagliari 38%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersAtalanta 3 corners, Cagliari 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 foulsAtalanta 9 fouls, Cagliari 8 fouls
  • Passes696 passes440 passesAtalanta 696 passes, Cagliari 440 passes
  • Pass accuracy91.4%85.2%Atalanta 91.4%, Cagliari 85.2%
  • Shots inside box13 shots3 shotsAtalanta 13 shots, Cagliari 3 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks0 blocksAtalanta 8 blocks, Cagliari 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesAtalanta 3 saves, Cagliari 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesAtalanta 1 offside, Cagliari 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 19′Paul MendyGoal · Cagliari
  2. 41′Gianluca ScamaccaGoal · Atalanta
  3. Half-time
  4. 61′Daniel MaldiniPenalty goal · Cagliari
  5. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 57′Cagliari · 1 player changeAlieu Fadera
  • 68′Cagliari · 1 player changeYukinari Sugawara
  • 68′Atalanta · 2 player changesLorenzo Bernasconi · Nikola Krstović
  • 76′Atalanta · 1 player changeGiacomo Raspadori
  • 79′Cagliari · 2 player changesKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Raphael Kofler
  • 86′Atalanta · 1 player changeMario Pašalić

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Atalanta4-3-3
  1. Marco CarnesecchiG
  2. Odilon KossounouD
  3. Raoul BellanovaD
  4. Giorgio ScalviniD
  5. Lorenzo BernasconiD
  6. Lazar SamardžićM
  7. ÉdersonM
  8. Franck KessiéM
  9. Gianluca ScamaccaF
  10. Jonathan RoweF
  11. Charles De KetelaereF
Cagliari4-4-2
  1. Elia CaprileG
  2. Zé PedroD
  3. Juan RodríguezD
  4. Yerry MinaD
  5. Adam ObertD
  6. Alessandro RomanoM
  7. Harry WinksM
  8. Michel AdopoM
  9. Jacopo FazziniM
  10. Paul MendyF
  11. Daniel MaldiniF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
1Draws
2Cagliari
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A2–1
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A0–0
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta4 matchesCagliari4 matches
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41 goal/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 0.5 goals/match
0.74 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 0.98 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 4.75 shots/match
48.3% ●Possession4/442%
2.25 corners/matchCorners4/4● 4.75 corners/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtalanta — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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