PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Lazio 2–2 Milan · Serie A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lazio and Milan drew 2–2.

Shots
816
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
2.051.09
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio and Milan drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Lazio – Milan): shots 8–16, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 2.05–1.09, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lazio show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lazio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsLazio · Milan13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLazioMilanBaseline
Shots13 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match9.75 shots/match15 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%PossessionLazio · Milan● 58.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLazioMilanBaseline
Possession45.3%58.5%45.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots16 shotsLazio 8 shots, Milan 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsLazio 6 shots, Milan 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.05 xG1.09 xGLazio 2.05 xG, Milan 1.09 xG
  • Possession34%66%Lazio 34%, Milan 66%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersLazio 2 corners, Milan 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsLazio 15 fouls, Milan 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsLazio 2 cards, Milan 3 cards
  • Passes317 passes629 passesLazio 317 passes, Milan 629 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.3%90.8%Lazio 82.3%, Milan 90.8%
  • Shots inside box7 shots11 shotsLazio 7 shots, Milan 11 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks4 blocksLazio 0 blocks, Milan 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 savesLazio 5 saves, Milan 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideLazio 2 offsides, Milan 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Matteo CancellieriGoal · Lazio
  2. 39′Tijjani NoslinGoal · Lazio
  3. Half-time
  4. 59′Christian PulišićYellow card · Milan
  5. 63′Reda BelahyaneYellow card · Lazio
  6. 64′Strahinja PavlovićYellow card · Milan
  7. 65′Diego MoreiraGoal · Milan
  8. 67′Diego MoreiraGoal · Milan
  9. 78′Mattia ZaccagniYellow card · Lazio
  10. 86′Mario GilaYellow card · Milan
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Milan · 3 player changesChristian Pulišić · Yunus Musah · Diego Moreira
  • 58′Lazio · 2 player changesAndrea Pinamonti · Gustav Isaksen
  • 74′Lazio · 1 player changeAlbert Guðmundsson
  • 77′Milan · 1 player changeOmari Hutchinson
  • 84′Lazio · 2 player changesDiogo Leite · Manuel Lazzari
  • 85′Milan · 1 player changeFrancesco Camarda

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Lazio4-3-3
  1. Christos MandasG
  2. Romano Floriani MussoliniD
  3. Nuno TavaresD
  4. Oliver ProvstgaardD
  5. Josip ŠutaloD
  6. Davide FrattesiM
  7. Reda BelahyaneM
  8. Kenneth TaylorM
  9. Andrea PinamontiF
  10. Mattia ZaccagniF
  11. Gustav IsaksenF
Milan3-4-2-1
  1. Mike MaignanG
  2. Pervis EstupiñánD
  3. Koni De WinterD
  4. Samuel ChukwuezeD
  5. Strahinja PavlovićD
  6. Mario GilaD
  7. Luka ModrićM
  8. Yunus MusahM
  9. Gonçalo RamosF
  10. Adrien RabiotF
  11. Alphadjo CissèF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Lazio
1Draws
1Milan
Lazio — Milan · Serie A1–0
Lazio — Milan · Coppa Italia1–0
Milan — Lazio · Serie A1–0
Milan — Lazio · Serie A1–2
Lazio — Milan · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio4 matchesMilan4 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/41 goal/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/41.23 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots4/413.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match
45.3%Possession4/4● 58.5%
5 corners/match ●Corners4/43 corners/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioMilan
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headLazio — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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