PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Toulouse 0–1 Lille · Ligue 1

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lille won 0–1.

Shots
2410
Shots on target
106
Expected goals
3.451.06
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Toulouse 1–0. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Lille): shots 24–10, shots on target 10–6, expected goals 3.45–1.06, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Lille10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLilleBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match10 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match20.7 shots/match18 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Toulouse have recorded the higher season possession share.

50% ●PossessionToulouse · Lille39%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLilleBaseline
Possession50%39%44.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots10 shotsToulouse 24 shots, Lille 10 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots6 shotsToulouse 10 shots, Lille 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.45 xG1.06 xGToulouse 3.45 xG, Lille 1.06 xG
  • Possession53%47%Toulouse 53%, Lille 47%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersToulouse 6 corners, Lille 2 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsToulouse 16 fouls, Lille 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsToulouse 1 card, Lille 0 cards
  • Passes515 passes463 passesToulouse 515 passes, Lille 463 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.4%86%Toulouse 87.4%, Lille 86%
  • Shots inside box14 shots6 shotsToulouse 14 shots, Lille 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksToulouse 3 blocks, Lille 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves9 savesToulouse 5 saves, Lille 9 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesToulouse 3 offsides, Lille 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 20′Santiago HidalgoYellow card · Toulouse
  2. Half-time
  3. 73′Ayase UedaGoal · Lille
  4. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Lille · 2 player changesRomain Perraud · Dilane Bakwa
  • 57′Lille · 1 player changeAyase Ueda
  • 57′Toulouse · 1 player changeJulian Vignolo
  • 57′Lille · 1 player changeNgal'ayel Mukau
  • 65′Toulouse · 1 player changeCasper Tengstedt
  • 66′Toulouse · 1 player changeIsmail Diallo
  • 71′Toulouse · 1 player changeMathys Niflore
  • 71′Lille · 1 player changeBaşar Önal
  • 72′Toulouse · 1 player changeNiklas Schmidt

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Toulouse4-2-3-1
  1. Guillaume RestesG
  2. Rasmus NicolaisenD
  3. Mark McKenzieD
  4. Christ TapéD
  5. Ismail DialloD
  6. Alexis VossahM
  7. Thomas JørgensenM
  8. Cristian Cásseres Jr.M
  9. Julian VignoloF
  10. Sion OppongF
  11. Jacen Russell RoweF
Lille4-2-3-1
  1. Berke ÖzerG
  2. Nathan NgoyD
  3. Alexsandro RibeiroD
  4. Romain PerraudD
  5. Tiago SantosD
  6. Nabil BentalebM
  7. Hakon Arnar HaraldssonM
  8. Benjamin AndréM
  9. Ethan MbappéF
  10. Olivier GiroudF
  11. Başar ÖnalF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
0Draws
4Lille
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 10–4
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 11–2
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 13–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Lille in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse3 matchesLille3 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 0.67 goals/match
2.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/31.13 xG/match
15.7 shots/match ▲Shots3/310 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 6 shots/match
50% ●Possession3/339%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners3/31.67 corners/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 3 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseLille
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headToulouse — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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