Eredivisie · 2025Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeMac3Park StadionFull-time recap
02Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPEC ZwolleFC Utrecht
Shots7 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match
Expected goals1.1 xG/match1.06 xG/match
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alonzo Engwanda · FC Utrecht · 62′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDylan Mbayo · PEC Zwolle · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid Min · FC Utrecht · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMiguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMiguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Blake · FC Utrecht · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmirhan Demircan · FC Utrecht · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSouffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht · 52′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEmirhan Demircan · FC Utrecht · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThomas Buitink · PEC Zwolle · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Blake · FC Utrecht · 75′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCan Bozdoğan · FC Utrecht · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetDerry Murkin · FC Utrecht · 44′ · 0.17 xG · goalDylan Mbayo · PEC Zwolle · 52′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedDavy van den Berg · FC Utrecht · 42′ · 0.31 xG · goalThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 11′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.92 xG. FC Utrecht: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Davy van den Berg · FC Utrecht · 42′Derry Murkin · FC Utrecht · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 0.92 xG · FC Utrecht 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

PEC Zwolle show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8 shots/matchShotsPEC Zwolle · FC Utrecht17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwolleFC UtrechtBaseline
Shots8 shots/match17.3 shots/match15.6 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

PEC Zwolle favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FC Utrecht in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/42.75 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/40.75 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/41.51 xG/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/41.13 xG/match
8 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/417.3 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/411 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/47.25 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/43.5 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 3/451.3%
1.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/44.75 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/44.25 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/49.25 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
67%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/450%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

PEC Zwolle36.1
FC Utrecht52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

PEC Zwolle13
FC Utrecht73.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

PEC Zwolle60.2
FC Utrecht77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

PEC Zwolle2.8
FC Utrecht91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

PEC Zwolle75
FC Utrecht19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

PEC Zwolle2.8
FC Utrecht41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

PEC Zwolle22.2
FC Utrecht48.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/42.75 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/40.75 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.51 xG/match
8 shots/matchShots3/417.3 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/47.25 shots/match
46.3%Possession3/451.3%
1.67 corners/matchCorners3/44.75 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/49.25 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/42.75 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/40.75 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.51 xG/match
8 shots/matchShots3/417.3 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/47.25 shots/match
46.3%Possession3/451.3%
1.67 corners/matchCorners3/44.75 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/49.25 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/42.75 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/40.75 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.51 xG/match
8 shots/matchShots3/417.3 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/47.25 shots/match
46.3%Possession3/451.3%
1.67 corners/matchCorners3/44.75 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/49.25 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
Goals scored2/2
Goals allowed2/2
Expected goals2/2
Shots2/2
Shots on target2/2
Possession2/2
Corners2/2
Cards0/0
Fouls2/2

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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PEC Zwolle vs FC Utrecht — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath