Eredivisie · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 14:45 UTCFull timeBUKO StadionFull-time recap
13Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC TelstarFortuna Sittard
Shots18 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals1.97 xG/match1.14 xG/match
Possession56%44%
Corners10 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tyrese Noslin · SC Telstar · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRyan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuus Offerhaus · SC Telstar · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKay Tejan · SC Telstar · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSebastiaan Hagedoorn · SC Telstar · 87′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSoufiane Hetli · SC Telstar · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 34′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNeville Nwankwo · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKay Tejan · SC Telstar · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKay Tejan · SC Telstar · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSebastiaan Hagedoorn · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDylan Mertens · SC Telstar · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSoufiane Hetli · SC Telstar · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 28′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 2′ · 0.15 xG · goalDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 43′ · 0.20 xG · goalMakan Aïko · Fortuna Sittard · 83′ · 0.20 xG · goalPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 19′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMakan Aïko · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.28 xG · goalKay Tejan · SC Telstar · 71′ · 0.33 xG · on targetKay Tejan · SC Telstar · 71′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Telstar: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.88 xG. Fortuna Sittard: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 43′Paul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 2′Makan Aïko · Fortuna Sittard · 83′Makan Aïko · Fortuna Sittard · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Telstar 1.88 xG · Fortuna Sittard 1.10 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Telstar favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Fortuna Sittard in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/42.25 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/41.75 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/41.35 xG/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/41.65 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/416.3 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/413.3 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/45.75 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/45.25 shots/match
44.8%Possessionseason · 5/452.8%
6.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/44.25 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/45.75 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/414.5 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Telstar30.6
Fortuna Sittard58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Telstar46.3
Fortuna Sittard60.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Telstar44.4
Fortuna Sittard55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Telstar80.6
Fortuna Sittard63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Telstar58.3
Fortuna Sittard97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Telstar83.3
Fortuna Sittard41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Telstar62.5
Fortuna Sittard59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/42.25 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/41.75 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals5/41.35 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/416.3 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/45.75 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/452.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/44.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
12 fouls/matchFouls5/414.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/42.25 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/41.75 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals5/41.35 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/416.3 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/45.75 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/452.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/44.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
12 fouls/matchFouls5/414.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/42.25 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/41.75 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals5/41.35 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/416.3 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/45.75 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/452.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/44.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
12 fouls/matchFouls5/414.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 2 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/2
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals3/2
15.7 shots/matchShots3/2
7 shots/matchShots on target3/2
52.3%Possession3/2
7 corners/matchCorners3/2
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/2

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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