PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Erve Asito

Heracles 4–2 Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Heracles won 4–2.

Shots
226
Shots on target
124
Expected goals
2.620.98
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Heracles Almelo beat Go Ahead Eagles 4–2. Recorded in this match (Heracles Almelo – Go Ahead Eagles): shots 22–6, shots on target 12–4, expected goals 2.62–0.98, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible home split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Heracles Almelo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Heracles Almelo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHeracles Almelo · Go Ahead Eagles11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHeracles AlmeloGo Ahead EaglesBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match11 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against17.3 shots/match18.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots6 shotsHeracles 22 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 6 shots
  • Shots on target12 shots4 shotsHeracles 12 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.62 xG0.98 xGHeracles 2.62 xG, Go Ahead Eagles 0.98 xG
  • Possession46%54%Heracles 46%, Go Ahead Eagles 54%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersHeracles 6 corners, Go Ahead Eagles 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls15 foulsHeracles 6 fouls, Go Ahead Eagles 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMike te Wierik · Heracles Almelo · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKenzo Goudmijn · Go Ahead Eagles · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles · 25′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMike te Wierik · Heracles Almelo · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Limbombe · Heracles Almelo · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles · 38′ · 0.05 xG · goalJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 51′ · 0.11 xG · goalJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 35′ · 0.14 xG · on targetLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 10′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 61′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 65′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 45′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 71′ · 0.25 xG · on targetDean James · Go Ahead Eagles · 7′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 10′ · 0.34 xG · goalJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 54′ · 0.42 xG · goalMathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles · 34′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Heracles Almelo: 22 shots, 12 on target, 2.61 xG. Go Ahead Eagles: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Damon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 10′Damon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 51′Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 54′Luka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 90′Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles · 34′Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles · 38′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Heracles Almelo 2.61 xG · Go Ahead Eagles 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Heracles
1Draws
2Go Ahead Eagles
Heracles — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie4–2
Go Ahead Eagles — Heracles · Eredivisie4–1
Heracles — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie2–0
Go Ahead Eagles — Heracles · Eredivisie4–0
Heracles — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Heracles favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Go Ahead Eagles in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Heracles13 matchesGo Ahead Eagles13 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.62 goals/match
2.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.69 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.28 xG/match
11.9 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 4.85 shots/match
43.8%Possession13/13● 51.8%
4.54 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.54 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/139.46 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHeraclesGo Ahead Eagles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headHeracles — Go Ahead Eagles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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