PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025BUKO Stadion

SC Telstar 3–0 Heracles · Eredivisie

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Telstar won 3–0.

Shots
127
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
2.710.85
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Telstar beat Heracles Almelo 3–0. Recorded in this match (SC Telstar – Heracles Almelo): shots 12–7, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 2.71–0.85, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible away split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.53 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.53 shots/match11 shots/match14.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsSC Telstar 12 shots, Heracles 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotSC Telstar 7 shots, Heracles 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.71 xG0.85 xGSC Telstar 2.71 xG, Heracles 0.85 xG
  • Possession47%53%SC Telstar 47%, Heracles 53%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersSC Telstar 6 corners, Heracles 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsSC Telstar 12 fouls, Heracles 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Walid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 23′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 25′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 33′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedRhys Bozinovski · Heracles Almelo · 58′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSem van Duijn · SC Telstar · 62′ · 0.00 xG · on targetWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 88′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedTristan van Gilst · Heracles Almelo · 13′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTyrese Noslin · SC Telstar · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTristan van Gilst · Heracles Almelo · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSoufiane Hetli · SC Telstar · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNeville Nwankwo · SC Telstar · 49′ · 0.07 xG · on targetPatrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 51′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 69′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 77′ · 0.10 xG · goalGuus Offerhaus · SC Telstar · 70′ · 0.14 xG · goalTyrese Noslin · SC Telstar · 72′ · 0.14 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Telstar: 12 shots, 7 on target, 0.73 xG. Heracles Almelo: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Guus Offerhaus · SC Telstar · 70′Tyrese Noslin · SC Telstar · 72′Jeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Telstar 0.73 xG · Heracles Almelo 0.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Telstar
1Draws
0Heracles
Heracles — SC Telstar · Eredivisie1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Telstar favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Telstar33 matchesHeracles33 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.03 goals/match
1.64 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/332.52 goals/match
1.5 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/331.16 xG/match
12.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/3311 shots/match
4.97 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.7 shots/match
45% ●Possession33/3344.5%
4.88 corners/match ●Corners33/334.36 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls33/3213.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC TelstarHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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