PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Akyazı Stadium

Trabzonspor 2–1 Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Trabzonspor won 2–1.

Shots
146
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.650.52
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 2–1. Recorded in this match (Trabzonspor – Kasımpaşa): shots 14–6, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.65–0.52, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Kasımpaşa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Kasımpaşa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Kasımpaşa have a visible away split

moderate

Kasımpaşa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Trabzonspor have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.4% ●PossessionTrabzonspor · Kasımpaşa45%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTrabzonsporKasımpaşaBaseline
Possession54.4%45%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsTrabzonspor 14 shots, Kasımpaşa 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsTrabzonspor 3 shots, Kasımpaşa 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG0.52 xGTrabzonspor 0.65 xG, Kasımpaşa 0.52 xG
  • Possession57%43%Trabzonspor 57%, Kasımpaşa 43%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersTrabzonspor 3 corners, Kasımpaşa 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls13 foulsTrabzonspor 18 fouls, Kasımpaşa 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mathias Løvik · Trabzonspor · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKazeem Olaigbe · Trabzonspor · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKerem Demirbay · Kasımpaşa · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErnest Muçi · Trabzonspor · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Augusto · Trabzonspor · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMortadha Ben Ouanes · Kasımpaşa · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKazeem Olaigbe · Trabzonspor · 2′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErnest Muçi · Trabzonspor · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor · 84′ · 0.04 xG · goalMortadha Ben Ouanes · Kasımpaşa · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMortadha Ben Ouanes · Kasımpaşa · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErnest Muçi · Trabzonspor · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChrist Inao Oulaï · Trabzonspor · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaul Onuachu · Trabzonspor · 51′ · 0.08 xG · goalErnest Muçi · Trabzonspor · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCláudio Winck · Kasımpaşa · 48′ · 0.16 xG · on targetFousseni Diabaté · Kasımpaşa · 61′ · 0.18 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Trabzonspor: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.62 xG. Kasımpaşa: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor · 51′Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor · 84′Fousseni Diabaté · Kasımpaşa · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Trabzonspor 0.62 xG · Kasımpaşa 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Trabzonspor
2Draws
1Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa — Trabzonspor · Süper Lig0–1
Kasımpaşa — Trabzonspor · Süper Lig1–1
Trabzonspor — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig2–2
Trabzonspor — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig2–3
Kasımpaşa — Trabzonspor · Süper Lig1–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Trabzonspor favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Kasımpaşa in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Trabzonspor19 matchesKasımpaşa19 matches
1.95 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.79 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.37 goals/match
1.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/190.83 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots19/1910.4 shots/match
5.74 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/192.68 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession19/1945%
4.21 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.05 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1914.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTrabzonsporKasımpaşa
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
Head-to-headTrabzonspor — Kasımpaşa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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