PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium

Kasımpaşa 0–1 Samsunspor · Süper Lig

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Samsunspor won 0–1.

Shots
118
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
1.170.72
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 1–0. Recorded in this match (Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor): shots 11–8, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 1.17–0.72, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Kasımpaşa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Kasımpaşa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Kasımpaşa have a visible home split

moderate

Kasımpaşa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Kasımpaşa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Kasımpaşa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsKasımpaşa · Samsunspor13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricKasımpaşaSamsunsporBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsKasımpaşa 11 shots, Samsunspor 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsKasımpaşa 1 shot, Samsunspor 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.17 xG0.72 xGKasımpaşa 1.17 xG, Samsunspor 0.72 xG
  • Possession52%48%Kasımpaşa 52%, Samsunspor 48%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerKasımpaşa 4 corners, Samsunspor 1 corner
  • Fouls21 fouls22 foulsKasımpaşa 21 fouls, Samsunspor 22 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ali Yavuz Kol · Kasımpaşa · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicholas Opoku · Kasımpaşa · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFousseni Diabaté · Kasımpaşa · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJaures Assoumou · Samsunspor · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetİrfan Can Kahveci · Kasımpaşa · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedİrfan Can Kahveci · Kasımpaşa · 34′ · 0.04 xG · on targetElayis Tavsan · Samsunspor · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJim Allevinah · Kasımpaşa · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndri Baldursson · Kasımpaşa · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 10′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJim Allevinah · Kasımpaşa · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedElayis Tavsan · Samsunspor · 24′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJaures Assoumou · Samsunspor · 90′ · 0.19 xG · goalCherif Ndiaye · Samsunspor · 73′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAli Yavuz Kol · Kasımpaşa · 35′ · 0.68 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Kasımpaşa: 11 shots, 1 on target, 1.15 xG. Samsunspor: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jaures Assoumou · Samsunspor · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Kasımpaşa 1.15 xG · Samsunspor 0.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Kasımpaşa
1Draws
2Samsunspor
Samsunspor — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig0–0
Samsunspor — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig0–2
Kasımpaşa — Samsunspor · Süper Lig1–4
Kasımpaşa — Samsunspor · Süper Lig1–0
Samsunspor — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Kasımpaşa favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Samsunspor in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Kasımpaşa20 matchesSamsunspor20 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 1.05 goals/match
0.84 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.27 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots20/20▲ 13 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲ 3.75 shots/match
45.4%Possession20/20● 51.4%
5 corners/matchCorners20/20● 5.75 corners/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls20/2015 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKasımpaşaSamsunspor
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
Head-to-headKasımpaşa — Samsunspor
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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