PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Antalya Stadium

Antalyaspor 3–1 Samsunspor · Süper Lig

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Antalyaspor won 3–1.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
0.991.99
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 3–1. Recorded in this match (Antalyaspor – Samsunspor): shots 13–13, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 0.99–1.99, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Samsunspor's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Samsunspor's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Antalyaspor have a visible home split

moderate

Antalyaspor's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season8.45 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match8.45 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Antalyaspor show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Antalyaspor's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.45 shots/match ▲ShotsAntalyaspor · Samsunspor12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAntalyasporSamsunsporBaseline
Shots8.45 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsAntalyaspor 13 shots, Samsunspor 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsAntalyaspor 5 shots, Samsunspor 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG1.99 xGAntalyaspor 0.99 xG, Samsunspor 1.99 xG
  • Possession35%65%Antalyaspor 35%, Samsunspor 65%
  • Corners4 corners10 cornersAntalyaspor 4 corners, Samsunspor 10 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls10 foulsAntalyaspor 17 fouls, Samsunspor 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Doğukan Sinik · Antalyaspor · 10′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedCelil Yüksel · Samsunspor · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCelil Yüksel · Samsunspor · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Holse · Samsunspor · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHüseyin Türkmen · Antalyaspor · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRamzi Safuri · Antalyaspor · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSoner Dikmen · Antalyaspor · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSander van de Streek · Antalyaspor · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHüseyin Türkmen · Antalyaspor · 15′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSamuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 22′ · 0.06 xG · goalSoner Gönül · Samsunspor · 40′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNikola Storm · Antalyaspor · 72′ · 0.08 xG · goalMarius Mouandilmadji · Samsunspor · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Holse · Samsunspor · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMarius Mouandilmadji · Samsunspor · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 6′ · 0.15 xG · goalCherif Ndiaye · Samsunspor · 86′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedCherif Ndiaye · Samsunspor · 25′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Holse · Samsunspor · 69′ · 0.17 xG · on targetJaures Assoumou · Samsunspor · 80′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedVeysel Sarı · Antalyaspor · 85′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Antalyaspor: 13 shots, 5 on target, 0.99 xG. Samsunspor: 13 shots, 3 on target, 2.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Samuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 6′Samuel Ballet · Antalyaspor · 22′Nikola Storm · Antalyaspor · 72′Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Antalyaspor 0.99 xG · Samsunspor 2.03 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Antalyaspor
0Draws
2Samsunspor
Samsunspor — Antalyaspor · Süper Lig1–2
Antalyaspor — Samsunspor · Süper Lig2–1
Samsunspor — Antalyaspor · Süper Lig2–0
Samsunspor — Antalyaspor · Süper Lig2–0
Antalyaspor — Samsunspor · Süper Lig2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Antalyaspor favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Samsunspor in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Antalyaspor22 matchesSamsunspor22 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.23 goals/match
0.75 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.27 xG/match
8.45 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.32 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 3.55 shots/match
43.4%Possession22/22● 52%
4.05 corners/matchCorners22/22● 6.05 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAntalyasporSamsunspor
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
Head-to-headAntalyaspor — Samsunspor
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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