Championship · 2025Sat, 16 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeThe DenFull-time recap

Millwall

0–3Full-time recap

Middlesbrough

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Millwall	Middlesbrough
Shots	11 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.6 xG/match	0.99 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	5 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Millwall: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.60 xG. Middlesbrough: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 0.60 xG · Middlesbrough 0.96 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Millwall favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Middlesbrough in 0 · 13 too close

—Goals scoredseason · 2/2—

—Goals allowedseason · 2/2—

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

—Shotsseason · 2/2—

—Shots allowedseason · 2/2—

—Shots on targetseason · 2/2—

—Shots on target allowedseason · 2/2—

—Possessionseason · 2/2—

—Cornersseason · 2/2—

—Corners allowedseason · 2/2—

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

—Foulsseason · 2/2—

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

—Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 2/2—

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Millwall—

Middlesbrough—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Millwall2 matchesMiddlesbrough2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Millwall1 matchesMiddlesbrough1 matches

—Goals scored1/1—

—Goals allowed1/1—

—Expected goals1/1—

—Shots1/1—

—Shots on target1/1—

—Possession1/1—

—Corners1/1—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls1/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples2 / 2home / away teams

Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4