PitchMath
Championship · 2025The Den

Millwall 1–0 Watford · Championship

1–0Historical match

Watford

LWDDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Millwall won 1–0.

Shots
911
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.70.73
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millwall beat Watford 1–0. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Watford): shots 9–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.7–0.73, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millwall's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millwall's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Watford have a visible away split

weak

Watford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsMillwall · Watford12.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMillwallWatfordBaseline
Fouls14.3 fouls/match12.8 fouls/match11.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots11 shotsMillwall 9 shots, Watford 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsMillwall 2 shots, Watford 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.7 xG0.73 xGMillwall 0.7 xG, Watford 0.73 xG
  • Possession39%61%Millwall 39%, Watford 61%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersMillwall 7 corners, Watford 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls9 foulsMillwall 11 fouls, Watford 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jake Cooper · Millwall · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHector Kyprianou · Watford · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNestory Irankunda · Watford · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNestory Irankunda · Watford · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJake Cooper · Millwall · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDerek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNampalys Mendy · Watford · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMax Alleyne · Watford · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 10′ · 0.09 xG · goalThierno Ballo · Millwall · 76′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJosh Coburn · Millwall · 22′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJake Cooper · Millwall · 14′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 89′ · 0.26 xG · on targetCaleb Wiley · Watford · 81′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Millwall: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.73 xG. Watford: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Camiel Neghli · Millwall · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 0.73 xG · Watford 0.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Millwall
1Draws
1Watford
Watford — Millwall · Championship1–2
Millwall — Watford · Championship2–3
Millwall — Watford · Championship1–0
Watford — Millwall · Championship2–2
Watford — Millwall · Championship0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Watford in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall6 matchesWatford6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.87 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.8 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 3 shots/match
47.8%Possession6/6● 52.2%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners6/63.17 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls6/612.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 22 Sept 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallWatford
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headMillwall — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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