Championship · 2025Tue, 4 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeAshton GateFull-time recap
01Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBristol CityBlackburn Rovers
Shots12 shots/match16 shots/match
Shots on target0 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals0.52 xG/match1.66 xG/match
Possession49%51%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ryoya Morishita · Blackburn Rovers · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn Rovers · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRob Dickie · Bristol City · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmil Riis Jacobsen · Bristol City · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRyan Alebiosu · Blackburn Rovers · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn Rovers · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSondre Tronstad · Blackburn Rovers · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEmil Riis Jacobsen · Bristol City · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn Rovers · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnis Mehmeti · Bristol City · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Hedges · Blackburn Rovers · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmil Riis Jacobsen · Bristol City · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoss McCrorie · Bristol City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn Rovers · 75′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGeorge Tanner · Bristol City · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMakhtar Gueye · Blackburn Rovers · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAnis Mehmeti · Bristol City · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMark Sykes · Bristol City · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRoss McCrorie · Bristol City · 58′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYuki Ohashi · Blackburn Rovers · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRyoya Morishita · Blackburn Rovers · 41′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYuki Ohashi · Blackburn Rovers · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Forshaw · Blackburn Rovers · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAnis Mehmeti · Bristol City · 75′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedScott Wharton · Blackburn Rovers · 69′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAndri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn Rovers · 37′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedYuki Ohashi · Blackburn Rovers · 45′ · 0.73 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bristol City: 12 shots, 0 on target, 0.53 xG. Blackburn Rovers: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn Rovers · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bristol City 0.53 xG · Blackburn Rovers 1.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bristol City, Blackburn Rovers. A second useful context is: Bristol City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bristol City, Blackburn Rovers.

3.2 daysRest daysBristol City · Blackburn Rovers3.3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBristol CityBlackburn RoversBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.3 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bristol City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bristol City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bristol City favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Blackburn Rovers in 4 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/131 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/131.31 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/131.53 xG/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/131.14 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1212.9 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1211.8 shots/match
3.31 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/123.83 shots/match
3.85 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/123.67 shots/match
46.5%Possessionseason · 13/1248.5%
5.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/124.83 corners/match
4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/124.58 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
9.92 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1212.5 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1331%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bristol City31.2
Blackburn Rovers39.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bristol City61.8
Blackburn Rovers50.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bristol City54.2
Blackburn Rovers58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bristol City89.6
Blackburn Rovers72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bristol City22.9
Blackburn Rovers85.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 46%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bristol City66.7
Blackburn Rovers43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bristol City47.9
Blackburn Rovers63.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.75 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots4/415 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
40%Possession4/446.8%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.51 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots9/914 shots/match
3.22 shots/matchShots on target9/94.11 shots/match
46.2%Possession9/948.3%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/95.22 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 13 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/131 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/131.31 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals14/131.53 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots13/1212.9 shots/match
3.31 shots/matchShots on target13/123.83 shots/match
46.5%Possession13/1248.5%
5.31 corners/matchCorners13/124.83 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.92 fouls/matchFouls13/1212.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/71 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/70.86 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals8/71.57 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots7/712.7 shots/match
1.86 shots/matchShots on target7/73.86 shots/match
49.3%Possession7/749.3%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.57 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.3 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 4 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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