PitchMath
Championship · 2025Pride Park Stadium

Derby County 2–1 Hull City · Championship

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Derby County won 2–1.

Shots
98
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.841.28
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Derby County beat Hull City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Derby County – Hull City): shots 9–8, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.84–1.28, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, Hull City.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysDerby County · Hull City3.3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDerby CountyHull CityBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Derby County have a visible home split

moderate

Derby County's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season8.69 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match8.69 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsDerby County 9 shots, Hull City 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsDerby County 3 shots, Hull City 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.84 xG1.28 xGDerby County 0.84 xG, Hull City 1.28 xG
  • Possession44%56%Derby County 44%, Hull City 56%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersDerby County 6 corners, Hull City 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls7 foulsDerby County 13 fouls, Hull City 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Regan Slater · Hull City · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gelhardt · Hull City · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohn Egan · Hull City · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatt Crooks · Hull City · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKyle Joseph · Hull City · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoe Gelhardt · Hull City · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCallum Elder · Derby County · 48′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndreas Weimann · Derby County · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 26′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatt Crooks · Hull City · 49′ · 0.15 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Derby County · 27′ · 0.17 xG · goalLars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby County · 83′ · 0.34 xG · goalJoel Ndala · Hull City · 50′ · 0.96 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Derby County: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.85 xG. Hull City: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Carlton Morris · Derby County · 27′Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby County · 83′Joel Ndala · Hull City · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 0.85 xG · Hull City 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Derby County
1Draws
0Hull City
Hull City — Derby County · Championship0–1
Derby County — Hull City · Championship1–1
Derby County — Hull City · Championship3–1
Hull City — Derby County · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Derby County favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Hull City in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Derby County14 matchesHull City14 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.64 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.33 xG/match
8.69 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 11.7 shots/match
2.77 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 4.54 shots/match
42.7%Possession13/13● 45.8%
4.38 corners/matchCorners13/13● 4.54 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1311.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 4 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDerby CountyHull City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headDerby County — Hull City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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