Championship · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeThe HawthornsFull-time recap
21Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest Bromwich AlbionOxford United
Shots26 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals1.61 xG/match0.95 xG/match
Possession62%38%
Corners11 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 81′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Płacheta · Oxford United · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKarlan Grant · West Bromwich Albion · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWill Vaulks · Oxford United · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrian De Keersmaecker · Oxford United · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarlan Grant · West Bromwich Albion · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 59′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuke Harris · Oxford United · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosh Maja · West Bromwich Albion · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 83′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 18′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 69′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 56′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJayson Molumby · West Bromwich Albion · 63′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNathaniel Phillips · West Bromwich Albion · 11′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 71′ · 0.15 xG · goalJosh Maja · West Bromwich Albion · 18′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGreg Leigh · West Bromwich Albion · 56′ · 0.20 xG · goalWill Lankshear · Oxford United · 85′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedWill Lankshear · Oxford United · 54′ · 0.60 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Bromwich Albion: 27 shots, 7 on target, 1.86 xG. Oxford United: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Greg Leigh · West Bromwich Albion · 56′Aune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 71′Will Lankshear · Oxford United · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Bromwich Albion 1.86 xG · Oxford United 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Bromwich Albion, Oxford United. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

West Bromwich Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Bromwich Albion, Oxford United.

3.8 daysRest daysWest Bromwich Albion · Oxford United3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWest Bromwich AlbionOxford UnitedBaseline
Rest days3.8 days3.8 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Oxford United have a visible away split

moderate

Oxford United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/matchShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Bromwich Albion favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Oxford United in 2 · 5 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/151.07 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.47 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/151.15 xG/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/151.39 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1413.8 shots/match
11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1414.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/143.71 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/144.29 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 15/1442.9%
5.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/144 corners/match
3.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/147.43 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
9.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1310.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1513%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Bromwich Albion68.8
Oxford United6.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Bromwich Albion40.3
Oxford United54.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Bromwich Albion75
Oxford United23.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Bromwich Albion56.2
Oxford United97.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Bromwich Albion18.8
Oxford United31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 43%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Bromwich Albion60.4
Oxford United10.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Bromwich Albion45.9
Oxford United43.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.9 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots5/412.5 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/43.75 shots/match
56%Possession5/442%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/45.75 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/47 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.13 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots10/913.9 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/94 shots/match
53.1%Possession10/944.4%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/94.33 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/89 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.07 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.47 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.15 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots15/1413.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target15/143.71 shots/match
53.6%Possession15/1442.9%
5.27 corners/matchCorners15/144 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1310.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored7/81.13 goals/match
0.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/81.38 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals7/80.87 xG/match
15.7 shots/matchShots7/711.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target7/73.71 shots/match
55.7%Possession7/736.7%
6.57 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
Cards0/0
11 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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