This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
This match
Match statistics
| Metric | Derby County | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 13 shots/match▲ | 12 shots/match |
| Shots on target | 4 shots/match▲ | 2 shots/match |
| Expected goals | 1.2 xG/match▲ | 0.91 xG/match |
| Possession | 55% | 45% |
| Corners | 11 corners/match | 7 corners/match |
| Fouls | 9 fouls/match | 13 fouls/match |
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Derby County: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.32 xG. Millwall: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 1.32 xG · Millwall 1.01 xG.
30-second read
What the record shows
The clearest recorded pattern is: Derby County's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millwall. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Derby County's recent record differs from the season
moderateDerby County's last-five shots average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11.8 shots/match | 9.37 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millwall.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Derby County | Millwall | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 4.3 days | 4.2 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 3 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
Derby County have a visible home split
moderateDerby County's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11.3 shots/match | 9.37 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Metric comparison
Values, percentiles and samples
Derby County favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Millwall in 7 · 5 too close
Style profile
How the teams compare
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Recent form
Season, last 10 and last 5
Window
Last 5
Window
Last 10
Window
Season
Venue split
Home and away samples
Window
Home team at home / away team away
Schedule context
Rest and recent workload
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.