PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 1–1 Derby County · Championship

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City and Derby County drew 1–1.

Shots
255
Shots on target
91
Expected goals
2.980.79
Possession
74%26%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City and Derby County drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Derby County): shots 25–5, shots on target 9–1, expected goals 2.98–0.79, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Birmingham City have a visible home split

strong

Birmingham City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Derby County show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBirmingham City · Derby County9.55 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityDerby CountyBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match9.55 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against9.64 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots5 shotsBirmingham City 25 shots, Derby County 5 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots1 shotBirmingham City 9 shots, Derby County 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.98 xG0.79 xGBirmingham City 2.98 xG, Derby County 0.79 xG
  • Possession74%26%Birmingham City 74%, Derby County 26%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerBirmingham City 12 corners, Derby County 1 corner
  • Fouls17 fouls13 foulsBirmingham City 17 fouls, Derby County 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Patrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJack Robinson · Birmingham City · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCallum Elder · Derby County · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLyndon Dykes · Birmingham City · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 44′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCallum Elder · Derby County · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 40′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 23′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 13′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSondre Langås · Derby County · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJack Robinson · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 6′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 26′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 9′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedJack Robinson · Birmingham City · 64′ · 0.23 xG · on targetDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 4′ · 0.49 xG · on targetPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 27′ · 0.49 xG · goalJack Robinson · Birmingham City · 64′ · 0.93 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 25 shots, 9 on target, 3.20 xG. Derby County: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Jack Robinson · Birmingham City · 64′Patrick Agyemang · Derby County · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 3.20 xG · Derby County 0.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Birmingham City
1Draws
0Derby County
Derby County — Birmingham City · Championship2–2
Birmingham City — Derby County · Championship2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Derby County in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City23 matchesDerby County23 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/231.39 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.35 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231.02 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots22/229.55 shots/match
3.91 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/223.23 shots/match
56.8% ●Possession22/2241.6%
5.73 corners/match ●Corners22/224.91 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2112 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 26 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityDerby County
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Derby County
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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