PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton 1–0 Watford · Championship

1–0Historical match

Watford

LDDLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Southampton won 1–0.

Shots
611
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.80.68
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Southampton beat Watford 1–0. Recorded in this match (Southampton – Watford): shots 6–11, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.8–0.68, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford.

7 days ▲Rest daysSouthampton · Watford3.7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSouthamptonWatfordBaseline
Rest days7 days3.7 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Watford have a visible away split

moderate

Watford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots11 shotsSouthampton 6 shots, Watford 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsSouthampton 4 shots, Watford 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG0.68 xGSouthampton 0.8 xG, Watford 0.68 xG
  • Possession47%53%Southampton 47%, Watford 53%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersSouthampton 3 corners, Watford 9 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsSouthampton 10 fouls, Watford 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Imrân Louza · Watford · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 54′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFinn Azaz · Southampton · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarc Bola · Watford · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Chakvetadze · Watford · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Chakvetadze · Watford · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Ngakia · Watford · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEdo Kayembe · Watford · 2′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEdo Kayembe · Watford · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 34′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 28′ · 0.15 xG · on targetCyle Larin · Southampton · 70′ · 0.15 xG · goalRoss Stewart · Southampton · 19′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 16′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 59′ · 0.35 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Southampton: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG. Watford: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Cyle Larin · Southampton · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 0.87 xG · Watford 0.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Southampton
2Draws
1Watford
Watford — Southampton · Championship2–2
Southampton — Watford · Championship3–2
Watford — Southampton · Championship1–1
Southampton — Watford · Premier League1–2
Watford — Southampton · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Southampton favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Watford in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Southampton31 matchesWatford31 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/311.26 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.16 goals/match
1.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.25 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots30/3113.8 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/314.48 shots/match
56.3% ●Possession30/3151.7%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners30/314.84 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls29/3010.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSouthamptonWatford
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headSouthampton — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required