Championship · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeCoventry Building Society ArenaFull-time recap
21Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCoventry CityStoke City
Shots20 shots/match3 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals2.33 xG/match0.21 xG/match
Possession64%36%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry City · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSorba Thomas · Stoke City · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBobby Thomas · Coventry City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEphron Mason-Clark · Coventry City · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHaji Wright · Coventry City · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJun-Ho Bae · Stoke City · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFrank Onyeka · Coventry City · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHaji Wright · Coventry City · 39′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Coventry City · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMatt Grimes · Coventry City · 19′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBobby Thomas · Coventry City · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRomain Esse · Coventry City · 10′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBobby Thomas · Coventry City · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVictor Torp · Coventry City · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJack Rudoni · Coventry City · 90′ · 0.11 xG · goalFrank Onyeka · Coventry City · 26′ · 0.13 xG · on targetBen Gibson · Stoke City · 45′ · 0.14 xG · goalFrank Onyeka · Coventry City · 35′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEphron Mason-Clark · Coventry City · 23′ · 0.18 xG · on targetEllis Simms · Coventry City · 82′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJack Rudoni · Coventry City · 54′ · 0.20 xG · on targetHaji Wright · Coventry City · 12′ · 0.29 xG · goalEphron Mason-Clark · Coventry City · 35′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Coventry City: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.29 xG. Stoke City: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Haji Wright · Coventry City · 12′Jack Rudoni · Coventry City · 90′Ben Gibson · Stoke City · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Coventry City 2.29 xG · Stoke City 0.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Coventry City, Stoke City. A second useful context is: Coventry City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Coventry City, Stoke City.

2.8 daysRest daysCoventry City · Stoke City2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCoventry CityStoke CityBaseline
Rest days2.8 days2.79 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Coventry City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Coventry City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/matchShotsCoventry City · Stoke City11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCoventry CityStoke CityBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Coventry City
0Draws
0Stoke City
Stoke CityCoventry City · Championship01

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Coventry City favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Stoke City in 2 · 5 too close

2.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/351.11 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/350.97 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/351 xG/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/351.28 xG/match
16.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/3411.1 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/3412.4 shots/match
5.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/343.85 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/343.82 shots/match
54.5%Possessionseason · 34/3453.2%
5.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/345.71 corners/match
4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/344.88 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
9.26 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3310.5 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3534%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3563%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Coventry City81.2
Stoke City72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Coventry City97.9
Stoke City29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Coventry City68.1
Stoke City70.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Coventry City97.9
Stoke City6.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Coventry City2.1
Stoke City31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Coventry City64.6
Stoke City77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Coventry City65.6
Stoke City42.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
0.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.87 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/59.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match
49.8%Possession5/551.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals10/100.93 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/103.3 shots/match
55%Possession10/1052.5%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

35 / 35 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored35/351.11 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowed35/350.97 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goals35/351 xG/match
16.6 shots/matchShots34/3411.1 shots/match
5.53 shots/matchShots on target34/343.85 shots/match
54.5%Possession34/3453.2%
5.32 corners/matchCorners34/345.71 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.26 fouls/matchFouls34/3310.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 18 matches
2.12 goals/matchGoals scored17/180.89 goals/match
0.76 goals/matchGoals allowed17/180.94 goals/match
1.92 xG/matchExpected goals17/180.99 xG/match
18 shots/matchShots17/179.76 shots/match
5.65 shots/matchShots on target17/173.24 shots/match
56.9%Possession17/1751.9%
5.94 corners/matchCorners17/175.18 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.65 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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