Millwall
Championship · 2025Millwall 1–0 Derby County · Championship
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
Millwall won 1–0.
- Shots
- 15–14
- Shots on target
- 4–1
- Expected goals
- 1.45–1.25
- Possession
- 50%–50%
Full time
What the match recorded
Millwall beat Derby County 1–0. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Derby County): shots 15–14, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 1.45–1.25, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Millwall's recent record differs from the season
moderateMillwall's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 goals/match | 1.38 goals/match | 1.29 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millwall, Derby County.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Millwall | Derby County | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 3.3 days | 3.2 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 3 matches | 3 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
Both teams have elevated fouls records
weakEach team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Millwall | Derby County | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13.1 fouls/match | 12 fouls/match | 10.7 fouls/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Millwall: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.43 xG. Derby County: 14 shots, 1 on target, 1.27 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 1.43 xG · Derby County 1.27 xG.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Millwall favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Derby County in 2 · 4 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 3 matches
Millwall / Derby County
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
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Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.