PitchMath
Championship · 2025Loftus Road Stadium

Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Watford · Championship

2–1Historical match

Watford

WDLWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Queens Park Rangers won 2–1.

Shots
157
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.40.34
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Queens Park Rangers beat Watford 2–1. Recorded in this match (Queens Park Rangers – Watford): shots 15–7, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.4–0.34, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Queens Park Rangers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots7 shotsQueens Park Rangers 15 shots, Watford 7 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsQueens Park Rangers 8 shots, Watford 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.4 xG0.34 xGQueens Park Rangers 2.4 xG, Watford 0.34 xG
  • Possession46%54%Queens Park Rangers 46%, Watford 54%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersQueens Park Rangers 2 corners, Watford 3 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls15 foulsQueens Park Rangers 20 fouls, Watford 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Richard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Chakvetadze · Watford · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 82′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJimmy Dunne · Queens Park Rangers · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPaul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 61′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRayan Kolli · Queens Park Rangers · 23′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPaul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 85′ · 0.05 xG · goalNestory Irankunda · Watford · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Bennie · Queens Park Rangers · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 36′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPaul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 63′ · 0.21 xG · goalDaniel Bennie · Queens Park Rangers · 65′ · 0.22 xG · on targetRayan Kolli · Queens Park Rangers · 43′ · 0.26 xG · on targetRayan Kolli · Queens Park Rangers · 43′ · 0.27 xG · on targetRayan Kolli · Queens Park Rangers · 26′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Queens Park Rangers: 15 shots, 8 on target, 2.44 xG. Watford: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Rayan Kolli · Queens Park Rangers · 26′Paul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 63′Imrân Louza · Watford · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Queens Park Rangers 2.44 xG · Watford 0.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Queens Park Rangers
1Draws
3Watford
Watford — Queens Park Rangers · Championship2–1
Queens Park Rangers — Watford · Championship3–1
Watford — Queens Park Rangers · Championship0–0
Queens Park Rangers — Watford · Championship1–2
Watford — Queens Park Rangers · Championship4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Queens Park Rangers favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Watford in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Queens Park Rangers40 matchesWatford40 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored40/401.28 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed40/40▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals40/40▲ 1.25 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots39/40▲ 13.7 shots/match
3.97 shots/matchShots on target39/40▲ 4.45 shots/match
45.3%Possession39/40● 51.1%
4.72 corners/matchCorners39/40● 4.75 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls38/3910.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples40 / 40home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsQueens Park RangersWatford
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headQueens Park Rangers — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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