PitchMath
Championship · 2025The Den

Millwall 1–2 Norwich City · Championship

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Norwich City won 1–2.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.922.19
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Norwich City beat Millwall 2–1. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Norwich City): shots 10–12, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.92–2.19, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millwall, Norwich City.

3.02 days ▲Rest daysMillwall · Norwich City2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMillwallNorwich CityBaseline
Rest days3.02 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsMillwall 10 shots, Norwich City 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsMillwall 2 shots, Norwich City 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG2.19 xGMillwall 0.92 xG, Norwich City 2.19 xG
  • Possession47%53%Millwall 47%, Norwich City 53%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersMillwall 2 corners, Norwich City 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsMillwall 12 fouls, Norwich City 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Femi Azeez · Millwall · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 51′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAnis Ben Slimane · Norwich City · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Darling · Norwich City · 87′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKenny McLean · Norwich City · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnis Ben Slimane · Norwich City · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Watson · Millwall · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAli Ahmed · Norwich City · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTristan Crama · Millwall · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMihailo Ivanović · Millwall · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 62′ · 0.09 xG · goalPelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 2′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCaleb Taylor · Millwall · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKenny McLean · Norwich City · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJack Stacey · Norwich City · 34′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTristan Crama · Millwall · 37′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedKenny McLean · Norwich City · 36′ · 0.26 xG · on targetMihailo Ivanović · Millwall · 56′ · 0.32 xG · goalMathias Kvistgaarden · Norwich City · 27′ · 0.42 xG · on targetOscar Schwartau · Norwich City · 76′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Millwall: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.94 xG. Norwich City: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mihailo Ivanović · Millwall · 56′Pelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 62′Oscar Schwartau · Norwich City · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 0.94 xG · Norwich City 2.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Millwall
0Draws
2Norwich City
Norwich City — Millwall · Championship1–2
Millwall — Norwich City · Championship3–1
Norwich City — Millwall · Championship2–1
Millwall — Norwich City · Championship1–0
Norwich City — Millwall · Championship3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Norwich City in 3 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall41 matchesNorwich City41 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored41/411.34 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowed41/411.17 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals41/411.27 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots40/4012.1 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target40/40▲ 4.3 shots/match
46.5%Possession40/40● 52.7%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners40/404.88 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls39/409.93 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples41 / 41home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallNorwich City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headMillwall — Norwich City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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