PitchMath
Championship · 2025Riverside

Middlesbrough 0–1 Portsmouth · Championship

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Portsmouth won 0–1.

Shots
203
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
1.280.42
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Portsmouth beat Middlesbrough 1–0. Recorded in this match (Middlesbrough – Portsmouth): shots 20–3, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 1.28–0.42, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Middlesbrough's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Middlesbrough's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Portsmouth have a visible away split

strong

Portsmouth's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.24 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.24 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.02 corners/match ●CornersMiddlesbrough · Portsmouth6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMiddlesbroughPortsmouthBaseline
Corners7.02 corners/match6 corners/match5.07 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots3 shotsMiddlesbrough 20 shots, Portsmouth 3 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotMiddlesbrough 8 shots, Portsmouth 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.42 xGMiddlesbrough 1.28 xG, Portsmouth 0.42 xG
  • Possession71%29%Middlesbrough 71%, Portsmouth 29%
  • Corners14 corners2 cornersMiddlesbrough 14 corners, Portsmouth 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls14 foulsMiddlesbrough 6 fouls, Portsmouth 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuke Ayling · Middlesbrough · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDael Fry · Middlesbrough · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuke Ayling · Middlesbrough · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Sarmiento · Middlesbrough · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlan Browne · Middlesbrough · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDael Fry · Middlesbrough · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRiley McGree · Middlesbrough · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSontje Hansen · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlan Browne · Middlesbrough · 9′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavid Strelec · Middlesbrough · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdilson Malanda · Middlesbrough · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlan Browne · Middlesbrough · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSontje Hansen · Middlesbrough · 83′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlan Browne · Middlesbrough · 69′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRiley McGree · Middlesbrough · 47′ · 0.11 xG · on targetColby Bishop · Portsmouth · 68′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough · 85′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedRiley McGree · Middlesbrough · 52′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.34 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Middlesbrough: 20 shots, 8 on target, 1.32 xG. Portsmouth: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Conor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Middlesbrough 1.32 xG · Portsmouth 0.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Middlesbrough
1Draws
2Portsmouth
Portsmouth — Middlesbrough · Championship1–0
Portsmouth — Middlesbrough · Championship2–1
Middlesbrough — Portsmouth · Championship2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Middlesbrough favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Portsmouth in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Middlesbrough42 matchesPortsmouth41 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored42/411 goal/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed42/411.39 goals/match
1.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals42/411.11 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots41/4012.4 shots/match
4.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target41/403.68 shots/match
60.4% ●Possession41/4051%
7.02 corners/match ●Corners41/406 corners/match
9.41 fouls/matchFouls41/409.95 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples42 / 41home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMiddlesbroughPortsmouth
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headMiddlesbrough — Portsmouth
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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