Super League · 2026

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast · Super League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.881.19
Expected goals
1.681.12
Shots
15.111.1
Possession
59.2%44.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: beijing Guoan have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: beijing Guoan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Beijing Guoan's recent record differs from the season

weak

Beijing Guoan's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Beijing Guoan have a visible home split

moderate

Beijing Guoan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Qingdao West Coast show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Qingdao West Coast's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsBeijing Guoan · Qingdao West Coast11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBeijing GuoanQingdao West CoastBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Beijing Guoan favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Qingdao West Coast in 0 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Beijing Guoan26 matchesQingdao West Coast26 matches
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.19 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed26/261.23 goals/match
1.68 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/111.12 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots26/2611.1 shots/match
5.38 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.5 shots/match
59.2% ●Possession26/2644.5%
5.88 corners/match ●Corners26/264.27 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Beijing Guoan
2Draws
0Qingdao West Coast
Qingdao West Coast — Beijing Guoan · Super League1–1
Qingdao West Coast — Beijing Guoan · Super League1–3
Beijing Guoan — Qingdao West Coast · Super League1–0
Qingdao West Coast — Beijing Guoan · Super League2–2
Beijing Guoan — Qingdao West Coast · Super League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness43 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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