PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Náutico 0–1 Fortaleza · Serie B

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 0–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Nautico Recife's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Náutico favored in 0 of 4 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Náutico12 matchesFortaleza12 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.25 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.92 goals/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 9 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingShare of matches scored in rankingFewest goals allowed per match ranking
TeamsNáuticoFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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