PitchMath
K League 1 · 2026Seoul World Cup Stadium

FC Seoul 1–0 Incheon United · K League 1

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Seoul won 1–0.

Shots
67
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.480.79
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Seoul beat Incheon United 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Seoul – Incheon United): shots 6–7, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.48–0.79, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Seoul's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Seoul's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.75 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots7 shotsFC Seoul 6 shots, Incheon United 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotFC Seoul 3 shots, Incheon United 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.48 xG0.79 xGFC Seoul 0.48 xG, Incheon United 0.79 xG
  • Possession48%52%FC Seoul 48%, Incheon United 52%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersFC Seoul 3 corners, Incheon United 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsFC Seoul 9 fouls, Incheon United 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Seoul
1Draws
1Incheon United
Incheon United — FC Seoul · K League 11–2
Incheon United — FC Seoul · K League 10–1
Incheon United — FC Seoul · K League 11–2
FC Seoul — Incheon United · K League 10–0
FC Seoul — Incheon United · K League 10–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Seoul favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Incheon United in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Seoul16 matchesIncheon United16 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.13 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals9/11▲ 1.57 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots16/1610.3 shots/match
4.19 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/163.44 shots/match
56.8% ●Possession16/1652.2%
5.13 corners/match ●Corners16/164.56 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in K League 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC SeoulIncheon United
CompetitionK League 1
Head-to-headFC Seoul — Incheon United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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