PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026

Molde FK 3–2 Tromsø IL · Eliteserien

3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Molde FK won 3–2.

Shots
137
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
2.50.65
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Molde FK beat Tromsø IL 3–2. Recorded in this match (Molde FK – Tromsø IL): shots 13–7, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 2.5–0.65, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tromsø IL's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tromsø IL's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Tromsø IL have a visible away split

moderate

Tromsø IL's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Molde FK have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.2% ●PossessionMolde FK · Tromsø IL49.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMolde FKTromsø ILBaseline
Possession59.2%49.4%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots7 shotsMolde FK 13 shots, Tromsø IL 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsMolde FK 4 shots, Tromsø IL 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.5 xG0.65 xGMolde FK 2.5 xG, Tromsø IL 0.65 xG
  • Possession55%45%Molde FK 55%, Tromsø IL 45%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersMolde FK 3 corners, Tromsø IL 2 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsMolde FK 16 fouls, Tromsø IL 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardMolde FK 4 cards, Tromsø IL 1 card
  • Passes614 passes508 passesMolde FK 614 passes, Tromsø IL 508 passes
  • Pass accuracy85%81.3%Molde FK 85%, Tromsø IL 81.3%
  • Shots inside box9 shots5 shotsMolde FK 9 shots, Tromsø IL 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockMolde FK 4 blocks, Tromsø IL 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveMolde FK 1 save, Tromsø IL 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideMolde FK 3 offsides, Tromsø IL 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alexander Warneryd · Tromsø IL · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTroy Nyhammer · Tromsø IL · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHeine Asen Larsen · Tromsø IL · 12′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEirik Hestad · Molde FK · 15′ · 0.07 xG · on targetOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLars Olden Larsen · Tromsø IL · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHeine Asen Larsen · Tromsø IL · 53′ · 0.08 xG · goalOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSivert Sira Hansen · Molde FK · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSivert Sira Hansen · Molde FK · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIeltsin Camões · Tromsø IL · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalLeon Hien · Tromsø IL · 12′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 55′ · 0.31 xG · goalTrent Kone Doherty · Molde FK · 90′ · 0.76 xG · goalEirik Hestad · Molde FK · 41′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Molde FK: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.51 xG. Tromsø IL: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Eirik Hestad · Molde FK · 41′Oskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 55′Trent Kone Doherty · Molde FK · 90′Heine Asen Larsen · Tromsø IL · 53′Ieltsin Camões · Tromsø IL · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Molde FK 2.51 xG · Tromsø IL 0.62 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Molde FK
0Draws
2Tromsø IL
Tromsø IL — Molde FK · Eliteserien2–0
Molde FK — Tromsø IL · Eliteserien2–0
Tromsø IL — Molde FK · Eliteserien1–0
Molde FK — Tromsø IL · Eliteserien5–3
Tromsø IL — Molde FK · Eliteserien0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Molde FK favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Tromsø IL in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Molde FK17 matchesTromsø IL17 matches
1.88 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 2 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.77 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.63 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots17/1713.4 shots/match
5.12 shots/matchShots on target17/175.29 shots/match
59.2% ●Possession17/1749.4%
5.47 corners/match ●Corners17/175.29 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMolde FKTromsø IL
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headMolde FK — Tromsø IL
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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