Eliteserien · 2026Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Molde FK

LWDLL

vsPre-match analysis

Tromsø IL

LDDWW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Molde FK's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Tromsø IL's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Molde FK's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Molde FK's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Tromsø IL have a visible away split

moderate

Tromsø IL's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.5 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Molde FK have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.7%▲PossessionMolde FK · Tromsø IL49.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Molde FK	Tromsø IL	Baseline
Possession	58.7%	49.9%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Molde FK

0Draws

1Tromsø IL

10 May 2026Tromso — Molde · Eliteserien2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Molde FK favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Tromsø IL in 8 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/15▲1.73 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/15▲1 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/151.68 xG/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/15▲1.07 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1513.9 shots/match

12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/15▲10.3 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/15▲5.4 shots/match

4.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/15▲3.13 shots/match

58.7%Possessionseason · 14/1549.9%

5.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/155.6 corners/match

4.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/15▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 2/1—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1511.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/15▲53%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1573%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Molde FK90.6

Tromsø IL46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Molde FK67.7

Tromsø IL78.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Molde FK67.7

Tromsø IL87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Molde FK21.9

Tromsø IL65.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Molde FK28.1

Tromsø IL46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 53%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Molde FK53.1

Tromsø IL65.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Molde FK53.1

Tromsø IL67.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.35 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match

59.4%Possession5/551%

7.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.31 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots10/1013.3 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.9 shots/match

57.3%Possession10/1049.1%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 15 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲1.73 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲1 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals14/151.68 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShots14/1513.9 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on target14/15▲5.4 shots/match

58.7%Possession14/1549.9%

5.43 corners/matchCorners14/155.6 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1511.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/61.33 goals/match

0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/61.33 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals7/61.15 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/611.5 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲4.5 shots/match

57.4%Possession7/648.2%

4.14 corners/matchCorners7/64.17 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/611.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/129.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness29 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4