PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026KFUM Arena

KFUM Oslo 2–4 Molde FK · Eliteserien

2–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Molde FK won 2–4.

Shots
819
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
0.693.54
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Molde FK beat KFUM Oslo 4–2. Recorded in this match (KFUM Oslo – Molde FK): shots 8–19, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 0.69–3.54, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Molde FK's recent record differs from the season

weak

Molde FK's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

KFUM Oslo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

KFUM Oslo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsKFUM Oslo · Molde FK12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricKFUM OsloMolde FKBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Molde FK have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.5%PossessionKFUM Oslo · Molde FK● 58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricKFUM OsloMolde FKBaseline
Possession45.5%58.6%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots19 shotsKFUM Oslo 8 shots, Molde FK 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsKFUM Oslo 4 shots, Molde FK 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.69 xG3.54 xGKFUM Oslo 0.69 xG, Molde FK 3.54 xG
  • Possession34%66%KFUM Oslo 34%, Molde FK 66%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersKFUM Oslo 3 corners, Molde FK 9 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsKFUM Oslo 8 fouls, Molde FK 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsKFUM Oslo 3 cards, Molde FK 3 cards
  • Passes279 passes544 passesKFUM Oslo 279 passes, Molde FK 544 passes
  • Pass accuracy66.3%82.9%KFUM Oslo 66.3%, Molde FK 82.9%
  • Shots inside box4 shots15 shotsKFUM Oslo 4 shots, Molde FK 15 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksKFUM Oslo 2 blocks, Molde FK 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves2 savesKFUM Oslo 5 saves, Molde FK 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides4 offsidesKFUM Oslo 2 offsides, Molde FK 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sander Hansen Sjøkvist · KFUM Oslo · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSander Hansen Sjøkvist · KFUM Oslo · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Eggen Vinge · KFUM Oslo · 1′ · 0.03 xG · goalSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 40′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCaleb Zady Sery · Molde FK · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobin Rasch · KFUM Oslo · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Lange Hjorth · KFUM Oslo · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBilal Njie · KFUM Oslo · 60′ · 0.06 xG · goalEmil Breivik · Molde FK · 58′ · 0.07 xG · goalJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 48′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 33′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 20′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 13′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDaniel Daga · Molde FK · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMartin Linnes · Molde FK · 85′ · 0.15 xG · goalBjorn Martin Kristensen · KFUM Oslo · 90′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 5′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 27′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedEirik Hestad · Molde FK · 40′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Daga · Molde FK · 40′ · 0.60 xG · goalSamukelo Kabini · Molde FK · 90′ · 0.97 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

KFUM Oslo: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.46 xG. Molde FK: 17 shots, 7 on target, 3.51 xG. · 3 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Rasmus Eggen Vinge · KFUM Oslo · 1′Bilal Njie · KFUM Oslo · 60′Daniel Daga · Molde FK · 40′Emil Breivik · Molde FK · 58′Martin Linnes · Molde FK · 85′Samukelo Kabini · Molde FK · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: KFUM Oslo 0.46 xG · Molde FK 3.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2KFUM Oslo
2Draws
0Molde FK
KFUM Oslo — Molde FK · Eliteserien0–0
Molde FK — KFUM Oslo · Eliteserien2–3
KFUM Oslo — Molde FK · Eliteserien1–1
Molde FK — KFUM Oslo · Eliteserien2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KFUM Oslo favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Molde FK in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KFUM Oslo14 matchesMolde FK14 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.79 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.63 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 12.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 4.57 shots/match
45.5%Possession14/14● 58.6%
4.07 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.21 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/33.67 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKFUM OsloMolde FK
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headKFUM Oslo — Molde FK
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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