PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026Aker Stadion

Molde FK 1–2 SK Brann · Eliteserien

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

SK Brann won 1–2.

Shots
159
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
1.360.71
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

SK Brann beat Molde FK 2–1. Recorded in this match (Molde FK – SK Brann): shots 15–9, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 1.36–0.71, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SK Brann's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SK Brann's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsMolde FK 15 shots, SK Brann 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsMolde FK 2 shots, SK Brann 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.36 xG0.71 xGMolde FK 1.36 xG, SK Brann 0.71 xG
  • Possession47%53%Molde FK 47%, SK Brann 53%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersMolde FK 6 corners, SK Brann 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsMolde FK 13 fouls, SK Brann 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardMolde FK 4 cards, SK Brann 1 card
  • Passes502 passes578 passesMolde FK 502 passes, SK Brann 578 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.7%84.3%Molde FK 83.7%, SK Brann 84.3%
  • Shots inside box12 shots7 shotsMolde FK 12 shots, SK Brann 7 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks4 blocksMolde FK 4 blocks, SK Brann 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves2 savesMolde FK 0 saves, SK Brann 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesMolde FK 0 offsides, SK Brann 3 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ulrik Mathisen · SK Brann · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUlrik Mathisen · SK Brann · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Løvik · Molde FK · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Castro · SK Brann · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTrent Kone Doherty · Molde FK · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSondre Milian Granaas · Molde FK · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristian Eriksen · SK Brann · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedUlrik Mathisen · SK Brann · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOskar Spiten-Nysæter · Molde FK · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJalal Abdullai · Molde FK · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEirik Hestad · Molde FK · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedUlrik Mathisen · SK Brann · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSeydina Mohamed Diop · Molde FK · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEmil Breivik · Molde FK · 75′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDenzel De Roeve · SK Brann · 8′ · 0.10 xG · goalSivert Sira Hansen · Molde FK · 86′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEmil Breivik · Molde FK · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEmil Breivik · Molde FK · 57′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKristian Eriksen · SK Brann · 35′ · 0.19 xG · goalSeydina Mohamed Diop · Molde FK · 88′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Molde FK: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.35 xG. SK Brann: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.52 xG. · 2 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Seydina Mohamed Diop · Molde FK · 88′Denzel De Roeve · SK Brann · 8′Kristian Eriksen · SK Brann · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Molde FK 1.35 xG · SK Brann 0.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Molde FK
0Draws
1SK Brann
Molde FK — SK Brann · Eliteserien4–0
SK Brann — Molde FK · Eliteserien0–3
Molde FK — SK Brann · Eliteserien2–1
SK Brann — Molde FK · Eliteserien1–3
SK Brann — Molde FK · Eliteserien3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Molde FK favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · SK Brann in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Molde FK13 matchesSK Brann14 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲ 2 goals/match
1.31 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/141.57 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲ 1.64 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots13/1412.8 shots/match
4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲ 4.57 shots/match
58% ●Possession13/1457.9%
4.92 corners/matchCorners13/14● 6.29 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMolde FKSK Brann
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headMolde FK — SK Brann
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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