PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026Briskeby Arena

HamKam 2–1 IK Start · Eliteserien

HamKam

WLLW
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

HamKam won 2–1.

Shots
1212
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.160.77
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ham-Kam beat Start 2–1. Recorded in this match (Ham-Kam – Start): shots 12–12, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.16–0.77, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Start's recent record differs from the season

weak

Start's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Start have a visible away split

weak

Start's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.75 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.2 fouls/matchFoulsHam-Kam · Start15.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHam-KamStartBaseline
Fouls13.2 fouls/match15.3 fouls/match11.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots12 shotsHamKam 12 shots, IK Start 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsHamKam 4 shots, IK Start 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG0.77 xGHamKam 1.16 xG, IK Start 0.77 xG
  • Possession54%46%HamKam 54%, IK Start 46%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerHamKam 5 corners, IK Start 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsHamKam 11 fouls, IK Start 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardHamKam 1 card, IK Start 1 card

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: HamKam favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · IK Start in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

HamKam5 matchesIK Start6 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/60.83 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/6▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/61.06 xG/match
11.8 shots/match ▲Shots5/610.3 shots/match
4.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/63.33 shots/match
46.2% ●Possession5/644.7%
4.8 corners/match ●Corners5/63.83 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/615.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamKamIK Start
CompetitionEliteserien
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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