Allsvenskan · 2026Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeStrawberry ArenaFull-time recap

AIK Stockholm

DWLWW

2–0Full-time recap

Gais

WLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AIK Stockholm	Gais
Shots	16 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.92 xG/match▲	1.24 xG/match
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AIK Stockholm's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: AIK Stockholm's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

AIK Stockholm have a visible home split

moderate

AIK Stockholm's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AIK Stockholm's recent record differs from the season

weak

AIK Stockholm's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AIK Stockholm favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Gais in 8 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/141.29 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/14▲1 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/6▲1.43 xG/match

2.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/6▲1.52 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/14▲14.6 shots/match

15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/14▲11.9 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/144.86 shots/match

4.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/14▲3.57 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 13/1449.6%

6.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/145.14 corners/match

5.31 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/14▲4.21 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/2—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1414.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/14▲43%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AIK Stockholm71.9

Gais53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AIK Stockholm46.9

Gais53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AIK Stockholm46.9

Gais90.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AIK Stockholm40.6

Gais59.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AIK Stockholm34.4

Gais90.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AIK Stockholm90.6

Gais46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AIK Stockholm54.7

Gais65.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.41 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

49.4%Possession5/550%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.43 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.6 shots/match

51.8%Possession10/1048.8%

6.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 14 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/141.29 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲1 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲1.43 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShots13/14▲14.6 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on target13/144.86 shots/match

52.1%Possession13/1449.6%

6.15 corners/matchCorners13/145.14 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1414.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.71 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

16.8 shots/match▲Shots6/712.7 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/74.29 shots/match

54.5%Possession6/753.4%

7 corners/matchCorners6/74.71 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/717 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4