PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Do MorumBIS

São Paulo vs Fluminense · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.171.68
Expected goals
1.271.29
Shots
1414.7
Possession
53.9%58.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: sao Paulo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: fluminense's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Sao Paulo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sao Paulo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fluminense have a visible away split

moderate

Fluminense's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match14.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 3 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo29 matchesFluminense28 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/281.29 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals25/241.29 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots29/2814.7 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target29/28▲ 5.64 shots/match
53.9%Possession29/28● 58.8%
7.03 corners/match ●Corners29/285.36 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2813.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2São Paulo
0Draws
3Fluminense
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A2–1
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A6–0
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A3–1
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A2–0
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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