PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.451.34
Expected goals
1.291.33
Shots
14.413.9
Possession
47.6%49.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlético Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 4 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo29 matchesAtlético Mineiro29 matches
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/291.34 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals26/251.33 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots29/2913.9 shots/match
5.1 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/294.79 shots/match
47.6%Possession29/29● 49.6%
4.66 corners/matchCorners29/29● 5.17 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards7/52.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo
2Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A1–1
Botafogo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A0–0
Botafogo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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