PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Athletico vs Vasco da Gama · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.581.27
Expected goals
1.341.49
Shots
12.517.8
Possession
46.5%53.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: vasco DA Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Vasco DA Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vasco DA Gama show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Vasco DA Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAtletico Paranaense · Vasco DA Gama17.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico ParanaenseVasco DA GamaBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match17.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Vasco da Gama in 7 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico26 matchesVasco da Gama26 matches
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.27 goals/match
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.54 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.49 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 17.8 shots/match
5.12 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 5.42 shots/match
46.5%Possession26/26● 53.7%
4.88 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.58 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Athletico
1Draws
2Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Vasco da Gama — Athletico · Serie A2–1
Athletico — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Vasco da Gama · Serie A0–0
Vasco da Gama — Athletico · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness46 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoVasco da Gama
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Vasco da Gama
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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