PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Santos 3–1 Vitória · Serie A

Santos

DDWLL
3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Santos won 3–1.

Shots
522
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
0.951.27
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Santos beat Vitoria 3–1. Recorded in this match (Santos – Vitoria): shots 5–22, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 0.95–1.27, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitoria's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitoria's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots22 shotsSantos 5 shots, Vitória 22 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsSantos 4 shots, Vitória 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG1.27 xGSantos 0.95 xG, Vitória 1.27 xG
  • Possession44%56%Santos 44%, Vitória 56%
  • Corners1 corner5 cornersSantos 1 corner, Vitória 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls8 foulsSantos 17 fouls, Vitória 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Santos
0Draws
1Vitória
Santos — Vitória · Serie A0–1
Vitória — Santos · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Vitória in 3 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos18 matchesVitória17 matches
1.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/171.24 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/140.85 xG/match
11.8 shots/match ▲Shots18/1710.9 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲ 4.18 shots/match
48.3% ●Possession18/1744.8%
5 corners/match ●Corners18/173.94 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/33 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1713.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosVitória
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Vitória
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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