PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vasco da Gama 2–1 São Paulo · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 2–1.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.182.39
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Vasco DA Gama – Sao Paulo): shots 20–10, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.18–2.39, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vasco DA Gama show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vasco DA Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsVasco DA Gama · Sao Paulo11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVasco DA GamaSao PauloBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsVasco da Gama 20 shots, São Paulo 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsVasco da Gama 5 shots, São Paulo 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.18 xG2.39 xGVasco da Gama 2.18 xG, São Paulo 2.39 xG
  • Possession62%38%Vasco da Gama 62%, São Paulo 38%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersVasco da Gama 6 corners, São Paulo 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls20 foulsVasco da Gama 14 fouls, São Paulo 20 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Vasco da Gama
1Draws
2São Paulo
Vasco da Gama — São Paulo · Serie A0–2
São Paulo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–3
São Paulo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A3–0
Vasco da Gama — São Paulo · Serie A4–1
Vasco da Gama — São Paulo · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama12 matchesSão Paulo12 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.33 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.92 goals/match
1.35 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.1 xG/match
17.4 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
5.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match
53.2%Possession12/12● 54.4%
5.5 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.83 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1215.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVasco da Gama — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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