PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Allianz Parque

Palmeiras 1–0 Athletico · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 1–0.

Shots
109
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.330.42
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Atletico Paranaense 1–0. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Atletico Paranaense): shots 10–9, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.33–0.42, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.83 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Palmeiras have a visible home split

moderate

Palmeiras's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsPalmeiras 10 shots, Athletico 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsPalmeiras 2 shots, Athletico 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.33 xG0.42 xGPalmeiras 0.33 xG, Athletico 0.42 xG
  • Possession50%50%Palmeiras 50%, Athletico 50%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersPalmeiras 9 corners, Athletico 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls22 foulsPalmeiras 9 fouls, Athletico 22 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Palmeiras
1Draws
1Athletico
Athletico — Palmeiras · Serie A0–2
Palmeiras — Athletico · Serie A0–2
Palmeiras — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Palmeiras · Serie A2–2
Athletico — Palmeiras · Serie A1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras12 matchesAthletico12 matches
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.42 goals/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.17 goals/match
0.65 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 0.84 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots12/1210.8 shots/match
4.83 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/124.33 shots/match
48.5% ●Possession12/1248.2%
5.42 corners/match ●Corners12/124.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1215.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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