PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTCScheduled

Seattle Sounders

vsPre-match analysis

Portland Timbers

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Seattle Sounders's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Seattle Sounders's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness54 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Seattle Sounders's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Seattle Sounders's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots20 shots/match14 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Seattle Sounders show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Seattle Sounders's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match17.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Seattle Sounders have a visible home split

moderate

Seattle Sounders's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Seattle Sounders75
Portland Timbers55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Seattle Sounders59.4
Portland Timbers41.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Seattle Sounders70.6
Portland Timbers14.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Seattle Sounders48.3
Portland Timbers38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Seattle Sounders13.3
Portland Timbers45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 62%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Seattle Sounders78.3
Portland Timbers15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Seattle Sounders59.1
Portland Timbers25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSeattle SoundersPortland Timbers
Goals scored1 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals2.04 xG/match5 obs.1.38 xG/match5 obs.
Shots20 shots/match5 obs.14.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6.4 shots/match5 obs.4.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession56.8%5 obs.57.6%5 obs.
Corners7.2 corners/match5 obs.4.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls8.2 fouls/match5 obs.9.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSeattle SoundersPortland Timbers
Goals scored1.3 goals/match10 obs.1.6 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed0.9 goals/match10 obs.1.7 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.58 xG/match10 obs.1.2 xG/match10 obs.
Shots14.5 shots/match10 obs.12.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target5.5 shots/match10 obs.4.1 shots/match10 obs.
Possession55.2%10 obs.50.8%10 obs.
Corners5.5 corners/match10 obs.3.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.3 fouls/match10 obs.9.8 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

13 / 14 matches
MetricSeattle SoundersPortland Timbers
Goals scored1.31 goals/match13 obs.1.57 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed0.85 goals/match13 obs.2 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals1.58 xG/match10 obs.1.29 xG/match11 obs.
Shots14 shots/match13 obs.12.2 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target5.46 shots/match13 obs.4.36 shots/match14 obs.
Possession53.5%13 obs.49.6%14 obs.
Corners5.69 corners/match13 obs.4.14 corners/match14 obs.
Cards2 cards/match3 obs.3 cards/match5 obs.
Fouls9 fouls/match13 obs.9.79 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 8 matches
MetricSeattle SoundersPortland Timbers
Goals scored2 goals/match6 obs.1 goals/match8 obs.
Goals allowed1.17 goals/match6 obs.2.13 goals/match8 obs.
Expected goals2.14 xG/match5 obs.1.31 xG/match7 obs.
Shots16.8 shots/match6 obs.12.8 shots/match8 obs.
Shots on target6.5 shots/match6 obs.3.88 shots/match8 obs.
Possession53.2%6 obs.48%8 obs.
Corners6.5 corners/match6 obs.4.75 corners/match8 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls8 fouls/match6 obs.10.1 fouls/match8 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.31 goals/match22th1.57 goals/match47th1.57 goals/match13 / 14
Goals allowedseason0.85 goals/match5th2 goals/match73th1.57 goals/match13 / 14
Expected goalsseason1.58 xG/match68th1.29 xG/match35th1.46 xG/match10 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.26 xG/match32th1.86 xG/match82th1.38 xG/match10 / 11
Shotsseason14 shots/match78th12.2 shots/match45th13.1 shots/match13 / 14
Shots allowedseason12.8 shots/match65th17.9 shots/match92th12.3 shots/match13 / 14
Shots on targetseason5.46 shots/match78th4.36 shots/match32th4.66 shots/match13 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason4 shots/match18th7 shots/match92th4.53 shots/match13 / 14
Possessionseason53.5%75th49.6%55th49.4%13 / 14
Cornersseason5.69 corners/match78th4.14 corners/match15th4.73 corners/match13 / 14
Corners allowedseason6.31 corners/match88th7 corners/match95th4.93 corners/match13 / 14
Cardsseason2 cards/match25th3 cards/match82th2.45 cards/match3 / 5
Foulsseason9 fouls/match2th9.79 fouls/match8th12.1 fouls/match13 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason38%88th7%15th20%13 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason77%42th71%23th79%13 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures53.1 days—54 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures0 matches—0 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
TeamsSeattle SoundersPortland Timbers
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v3