PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Braga

Sporting Braga 2–2 CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga and CF Estrela Amadora drew 2–2.

Shots
146
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
2.410.73
Possession
74%26%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Braga and Estrela drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (SC Braga – Estrela): shots 14–6, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 2.41–0.73, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Braga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Braga's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible away split

moderate

Estrela's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.06 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.06 shots/match11 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Braga · Estrela11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaEstrelaBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match11 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsSporting Braga 14 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsSporting Braga 4 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.41 xG0.73 xGSporting Braga 2.41 xG, CF Estrela Amadora 0.73 xG
  • Possession74%26%Sporting Braga 74%, CF Estrela Amadora 26%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerSporting Braga 7 corners, CF Estrela Amadora 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsSporting Braga 13 fouls, CF Estrela Amadora 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card5 cardsSporting Braga 1 card, CF Estrela Amadora 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gustaf Lagerbielke · SC Braga · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuís Pinto · SC Braga · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPau Víctor · SC Braga · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPau Víctor · SC Braga · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Encada · Estrela · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStefan Leković · Estrela · 5′ · 0.05 xG · goalAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIanis Stoica · Estrela · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFran Navarro · SC Braga · 27′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Oliveira · SC Braga · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 12′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedStefan Leković · Estrela · 90′ · 0.54 xG · goalPau Víctor · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalGabriel Martínez · SC Braga · 16′ · 0.99 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Braga: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.50 xG. Estrela: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Gabriel Martínez · SC Braga · 16′Pau Víctor · SC Braga · 90′Stefan Leković · Estrela · 5′Stefan Leković · Estrela · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Braga 2.50 xG · Estrela 0.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Sporting Braga
2Draws
0CF Estrela Amadora
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga3–3
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting Braga favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · CF Estrela Amadora in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting Braga36 matchesCF Estrela Amadora36 matches
1.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored36/361.14 goals/match
1.06 goals/match ▲Goals allowed36/361.56 goals/match
1.69 xG/match ▲Expected goals34/341.22 xG/match
11.9 shots/match ▲Shots36/3611 shots/match
4.81 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/363.69 shots/match
63.3% ●Possession36/3647.4%
5.42 corners/match ●Corners36/363.56 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards27/262.81 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls36/3614.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSporting BragaCF Estrela Amadora
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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