PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Vitória SC 0–1 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Casa Pia won 0–1.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.940.88
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Casa Pia beat Guimaraes 1–0. Recorded in this match (Guimaraes – Casa Pia): shots 15–11, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.94–0.88, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsGuimaraes · Casa Pia8.54 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGuimaraesCasa PiaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match8.54 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Guimaraes have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.1% ●PossessionGuimaraes · Casa Pia41.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGuimaraesCasa PiaBaseline
Possession51.1%41.5%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsVitória SC 15 shots, Casa Pia 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsVitória SC 2 shots, Casa Pia 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.94 xG0.88 xGVitória SC 0.94 xG, Casa Pia 0.88 xG
  • Possession71%29%Vitória SC 71%, Casa Pia 29%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersVitória SC 6 corners, Casa Pia 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsVitória SC 11 fouls, Casa Pia 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardVitória SC 2 cards, Casa Pia 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

David Sousa · Casa Pia · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Saviolo · Guimaraes · 60′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMartim Guedes · Guimaraes · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLawrence Ofori · Casa Pia · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSebastián Pérez · Casa Pia · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTony Strata · Guimaraes · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodrigo Abascal · Guimaraes · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDailon Rocha Livramento · Casa Pia · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Nogueira · Guimaraes · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Abascal · Guimaraes · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdu Conté · Casa Pia · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlioune Ndoye · Guimaraes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTony Strata · Guimaraes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDailon Rocha Livramento · Casa Pia · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDailon Rocha Livramento · Casa Pia · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSamu · Guimaraes · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGonçalo Nogueira · Guimaraes · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSamu · Guimaraes · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSamu · Guimaraes · 5′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 86′ · 0.09 xG · goalTelmo Arcanjo · Guimaraes · 71′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTelmo Arcanjo · Guimaraes · 71′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 10′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMartim Guedes · Guimaraes · 74′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 42′ · 0.30 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Guimaraes: 15 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG. Casa Pia: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Guimaraes 0.97 xG · Casa Pia 0.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vitória SC
3Draws
1Casa Pia
Casa Pia — Vitória SC · Primeira Liga0–0
Vitória SC — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–0
Casa Pia — Vitória SC · Primeira Liga1–1
Vitória SC — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga0–2
Casa Pia — Vitória SC · Primeira Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória SC favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória SC35 matchesCasa Pia35 matches
1.26 goals/match ▲Goals scored35/351 goal/match
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/351.69 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals34/330.88 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots35/358.54 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target35/352.91 shots/match
51.1% ●Possession35/3541.5%
4.46 corners/match ●Corners35/353.77 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards25/263.38 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls35/3516.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitória SCCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headVitória SC — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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