PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Gomes

CF Estrela Amadora 1–2 Rio Ave · Primeira Liga

1–2Historical match

Rio Ave

LLDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rio Ave won 1–2.

Shots
168
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.820.86
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rio Ave beat Estrela 2–1. Recorded in this match (Estrela – Rio Ave): shots 16–8, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.82–0.86, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estrela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsEstrela · Rio Ave10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstrelaRio AveBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Estrela have a visible home split

moderate

Estrela's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots8 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 16 shots, Rio Ave 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 2 shots, Rio Ave 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.82 xG0.86 xGCF Estrela Amadora 0.82 xG, Rio Ave 0.86 xG
  • Possession57%43%CF Estrela Amadora 57%, Rio Ave 43%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersCF Estrela Amadora 4 corners, Rio Ave 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls20 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 16 fouls, Rio Ave 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards6 cardsCF Estrela Amadora 3 cards, Rio Ave 6 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jorge Meireles · Estrela · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOumar Ngom · Estrela · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge Meireles · Estrela · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSidny Lopes Cabral · Estrela · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetClayton · Rio Ave · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOumar Ngom · Estrela · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSidny Lopes Cabral · Estrela · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSidny Lopes Cabral · Estrela · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedClayton · Rio Ave · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorge Meireles · Estrela · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 71′ · 0.05 xG · goalJoao Gastao · Estrela · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAtanas Chernev · Estrela · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Panzo · Rio Ave · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Moreira · Estrela · 28′ · 0.09 xG · goalMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKikas · Estrela · 38′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOumar Ngom · Estrela · 57′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 50′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estrela: 16 shots, 2 on target, 0.82 xG. Rio Ave: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Paulo Moreira · Estrela · 28′André Luiz · Rio Ave · 50′Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estrela 0.82 xG · Rio Ave 0.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CF Estrela Amadora
2Draws
1Rio Ave
Rio Ave — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga2–2
Rio Ave — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Rio Ave in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora10 matchesRio Ave9 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored10/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed10/91.56 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.06 xG/match
11.7 shots/match ▲Shots10/910.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲ 4.33 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession10/943.7%
4.3 corners/match ●Corners10/93.67 corners/match
2.89 cards/matchCards9/93.44 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/915.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraRio Ave
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Rio Ave
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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