PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Rio Ave 0–4 Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

LDDWW
0–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Estoril Praia won 0–4.

Shots
224
Shots on target
06
Expected goals
0.172.21
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estoril beat Rio Ave 4–0. Recorded in this match (Rio Ave – Estoril): shots 2–24, shots on target 0–6, expected goals 0.17–2.21, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rio Ave's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rio Ave's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots6.4 shots/match9.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estoril show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estoril's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsRio Ave · Estoril13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRio AveEstorilBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against18.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Estoril have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.4%PossessionRio Ave · Estoril● 52.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRio AveEstorilBaseline
Possession43.4%52.1%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots2 shots24 shotsRio Ave 2 shots, Estoril Praia 24 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots6 shotsRio Ave 0 shots, Estoril Praia 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.17 xG2.21 xGRio Ave 0.17 xG, Estoril Praia 2.21 xG
  • Possession41%59%Rio Ave 41%, Estoril Praia 59%
  • Corners0 corners6 cornersRio Ave 0 corners, Estoril Praia 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsRio Ave 10 fouls, Estoril Praia 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardRio Ave 2 cards, Estoril Praia 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jordan Holsgrove · Estoril · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJordan Holsgrove · Estoril · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 19′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 40′ · 0.03 xG · goalAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick de Paula · Estoril · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPedro Carvalho · Estoril · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Holsgrove · Estoril · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Costa · Estoril · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPedro Carvalho · Estoril · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFelix Bacher · Estoril · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntef Tsoungui · Estoril · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 45′ · 0.09 xG · goalKévin Boma · Estoril · 79′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 63′ · 0.10 xG · goalKévin Boma · Estoril · 43′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 55′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 50′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 90′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 27′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 70′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rio Ave: 2 shots, 0 on target, 0.20 xG. Estoril: 24 shots, 6 on target, 3.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Yanis Begraoui · Estoril · 40′Yanis Begraoui · Estoril · 45′André Lacximicant · Estoril · 63′Yanis Begraoui · Estoril · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rio Ave 0.20 xG · Estoril 3.23 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rio Ave
2Draws
2Estoril Praia
Estoril Praia — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga2–1
Rio Ave — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga2–2
Rio Ave — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga1–1
Estoril Praia — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga2–0
Rio Ave — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rio Ave favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Estoril Praia in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rio Ave10 matchesEstoril Praia11 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲ 1.64 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲ 1.36 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.21 xG/match
9.4 shots/matchShots10/11▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/114.09 shots/match
43.4%Possession10/11● 52.1%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/11● 3.55 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards10/103.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1113.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRio AveEstoril Praia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headRio Ave — Estoril Praia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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