PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Estoril Praia 1–1 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Estoril Praia and CD Nacional drew 1–1.

Shots
139
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.761.2
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estoril and Nacional drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Estoril – Nacional): shots 13–9, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.76–1.2, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Estoril have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.4% ●PossessionEstoril · Nacional43.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEstorilNacionalBaseline
Possession51.4%43.2%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsEstoril Praia 13 shots, CD Nacional 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsEstoril Praia 4 shots, CD Nacional 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG1.2 xGEstoril Praia 1.76 xG, CD Nacional 1.2 xG
  • Possession59%41%Estoril Praia 59%, CD Nacional 41%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersEstoril Praia 6 corners, CD Nacional 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsEstoril Praia 13 fouls, CD Nacional 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsEstoril Praia 3 cards, CD Nacional 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

João Carvalho · Estoril · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Costa · Estoril · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatheus Dias · Nacional · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Dias · Nacional · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Holsgrove · Estoril · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKévin Boma · Estoril · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLiziero · Nacional · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAntef Tsoungui · Estoril · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlejandro Marqués · Estoril · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLéo Santos · Nacional · 37′ · 0.07 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPedro Carvalho · Estoril · 23′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPeixinho · Estoril · 83′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTiago Parente · Estoril · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · Nacional · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedWiti · Nacional · 80′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedKévin Boma · Estoril · 17′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · Nacional · 37′ · 0.50 xG · goalYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 60′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estoril: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.79 xG. Nacional: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Yanis Begraoui · Estoril · 60′Ze Vitor · Nacional · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estoril 1.79 xG · Nacional 1.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Estoril Praia
1Draws
0CD Nacional
CD Nacional — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga2–2
Estoril Praia — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Estoril Praia favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Estoril Praia10 matchesCD Nacional9 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/91.11 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/91.44 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.29 xG/match
12.2 shots/match ▲Shots10/911 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/94 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession10/943.2%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/9● 4.89 corners/match
3.44 cards/matchCards9/93.11 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/915.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsEstoril PraiaCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headEstoril Praia — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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