PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Braga

Sporting Braga 0–1 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CD Nacional won 0–1.

Shots
913
Shots on target
15
Expected goals
0.581.33
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nacional beat SC Braga 1–0. Recorded in this match (SC Braga – Nacional): shots 9–13, shots on target 1–5, expected goals 0.58–1.33, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Braga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Braga's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.63 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.88 corners/match ●CornersSC Braga · Nacional5.29 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaNacionalBaseline
Corners6.88 corners/match5.29 corners/match4 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SC Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.1% ●PossessionSC Braga · Nacional41.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaNacionalBaseline
Possession68.1%41.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots13 shotsSporting Braga 9 shots, CD Nacional 13 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot5 shotsSporting Braga 1 shot, CD Nacional 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.58 xG1.33 xGSporting Braga 0.58 xG, CD Nacional 1.33 xG
  • Possession60%40%Sporting Braga 60%, CD Nacional 40%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersSporting Braga 6 corners, CD Nacional 3 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls7 foulsSporting Braga 4 fouls, CD Nacional 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsSporting Braga 0 cards, CD Nacional 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Martínez · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVictor Gómez · SC Braga · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · Nacional · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Moscardo · SC Braga · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · Nacional · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiego Rodrigues · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · Nacional · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · Nacional · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · Nacional · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Ruan · Nacional · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVictor Gómez · SC Braga · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPablo Ruan · Nacional · 33′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 30′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 65′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFlorian Grillitsch · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 6′ · 0.54 xG · goalWiti · Nacional · 90′ · 0.71 xG · on targetWiti · Nacional · 90′ · 0.74 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Braga: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.62 xG. Nacional: 13 shots, 5 on target, 2.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jesús Ramírez · Nacional · 6′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Braga 0.62 xG · Nacional 2.44 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Sporting Braga
0Draws
0CD Nacional
Sporting Braga — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0
CD Nacional — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting Braga favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting Braga8 matchesCD Nacional7 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/70.86 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/71.43 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.1 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots8/710.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/73.57 shots/match
68.1% ●Possession8/741.4%
6.88 corners/match ●Corners8/75.29 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards7/73.43 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls8/715.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSporting BragaCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting Braga — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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