PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025Jan Breydel Stadion

Cercle Brugge 2–3 KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KV Mechelen won 2–3.

Shots
1712
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
2.071.51
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

KV Mechelen beat Cercle Brugge 3–2. Recorded in this match (Cercle Brugge – KV Mechelen): shots 17–12, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 2.07–1.51, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cercle Brugge show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cercle Brugge's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsCercle Brugge · KV Mechelen10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCercle BruggeKV MechelenBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

KV Mechelen's recent record differs from the season

weak

KV Mechelen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots12 shotsCercle Brugge 17 shots, KV Mechelen 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsCercle Brugge 7 shots, KV Mechelen 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.07 xG1.51 xGCercle Brugge 2.07 xG, KV Mechelen 1.51 xG
  • Possession51%49%Cercle Brugge 51%, KV Mechelen 49%
  • Corners6 corners9 cornersCercle Brugge 6 corners, KV Mechelen 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsCercle Brugge 12 fouls, KV Mechelen 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsCercle Brugge 1 card, KV Mechelen 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Flávio Nazinho · Cercle Brugge · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThérence Koudou · KV Mechelen · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSteve Ngoura · Cercle Brugge · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlávio Nazinho · Cercle Brugge · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOluwaseun Adewumi · Cercle Brugge · 39′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSteve Ngoura · Cercle Brugge · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlávio Nazinho · Cercle Brugge · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalOluwaseun Adewumi · Cercle Brugge · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMathis Servais · KV Mechelen · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOluwaseun Adewumi · Cercle Brugge · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Kakou · Cercle Brugge · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLawrence Agyekum · Cercle Brugge · 21′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGora Diouf · KV Mechelen · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Kakou · Cercle Brugge · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKerim Mrabti · KV Mechelen · 25′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKerim Mrabti · KV Mechelen · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFlávio Nazinho · Cercle Brugge · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTommy St Jago · KV Mechelen · 2′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPieter Gerkens · Cercle Brugge · 54′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKerim Mrabti · KV Mechelen · 62′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOluwaseun Adewumi · Cercle Brugge · 66′ · 0.13 xG · on targetOluwaseun Adewumi · Cercle Brugge · 18′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDikeni Salifou · KV Mechelen · 57′ · 0.15 xG · on targetLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 40′ · 0.17 xG · goalFredrik Hammar · KV Mechelen · 35′ · 0.18 xG · goalPieter Gerkens · Cercle Brugge · 54′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedGora Diouf · KV Mechelen · 49′ · 0.34 xG · goalGary Magnee · Cercle Brugge · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cercle Brugge: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.10 xG. KV Mechelen: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Flávio Nazinho · Cercle Brugge · 47′Gary Magnee · Cercle Brugge · 90′Fredrik Hammar · KV Mechelen · 35′Lion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 40′Gora Diouf · KV Mechelen · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cercle Brugge 2.10 xG · KV Mechelen 1.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Cercle Brugge
1Draws
2KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen — Cercle Brugge · Belgian Pro League0–0
Cercle Brugge — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League1–0
KV Mechelen — Cercle Brugge · Belgian Pro League2–0
Cercle Brugge — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League2–3
KV Mechelen — Cercle Brugge · Belgian Pro League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cercle Brugge favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · KV Mechelen in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cercle Brugge19 matchesKV Mechelen19 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.42 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/181.25 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots19/1910.5 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target19/194.16 shots/match
51.2% ●Possession19/1948.5%
4.74 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards18/182.44 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCercle BruggeKV Mechelen
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headCercle Brugge — KV Mechelen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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