PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025Den Dreef

Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1–2 RAAL La Louvière · Belgian Pro League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RAAL La Louvière won 1–2.

Shots
85
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.361.27
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

RAAL La Louvière beat OH Leuven 2–1. Recorded in this match (OH Leuven – RAAL La Louvière): shots 8–5, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.36–1.27, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RAAL La Louvière's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RAAL La Louvière's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RAAL La Louvière show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RAAL La Louvière's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsOH Leuven · RAAL La Louvière9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match9.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

OH Leuven have recorded the higher season possession share.

46% ●PossessionOH Leuven · RAAL La Louvière33.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreBaseline
Possession46%33.6%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots5 shotsOud-Heverlee Leuven 8 shots, RAAL La Louvière 5 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsOud-Heverlee Leuven 2 shots, RAAL La Louvière 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.36 xG1.27 xGOud-Heverlee Leuven 0.36 xG, RAAL La Louvière 1.27 xG
  • Possession67%33%Oud-Heverlee Leuven 67%, RAAL La Louvière 33%
  • Corners2 corners1 cornerOud-Heverlee Leuven 2 corners, RAAL La Louvière 1 corner
  • Fouls22 fouls16 foulsOud-Heverlee Leuven 22 fouls, RAAL La Louvière 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsOud-Heverlee Leuven 4 cards, RAAL La Louvière 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ewoud Pletinckx · OH Leuven · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordi Liongola · RAAL La Louvière · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJovan Mijatović · OH Leuven · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOwen Maes · RAAL La Louvière · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMathieu Maertens · OH Leuven · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussef Maziz · OH Leuven · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJerry Afriyie · RAAL La Louvière · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 8′ · 0.09 xG · goalSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 81′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 69′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJerry Afriyie · RAAL La Louvière · 16′ · 0.26 xG · goalJerry Afriyie · RAAL La Louvière · 27′ · 0.95 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

OH Leuven: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.53 xG. RAAL La Louvière: 5 shots, 3 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Sory Kaba · OH Leuven · 8′Jerry Afriyie · RAAL La Louvière · 16′Jerry Afriyie · RAAL La Louvière · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: OH Leuven 0.53 xG · RAAL La Louvière 1.31 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Oud-Heverlee Leuven favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · RAAL La Louvière in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Oud-Heverlee Leuven9 matchesRAAL La Louvière8 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/80.88 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲ 1.13 goals/match
0.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.78 xG/match
11.6 shots/match ▲Shots9/89.5 shots/match
3.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/82.63 shots/match
46% ●Possession9/833.6%
4.89 corners/match ●Corners9/84.25 corners/match
3.38 cards/matchCards8/81.63 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls9/812.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOud-Heverlee LeuvenRAAL La Louvière
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required