Serie A · 2025Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap

Fiorentina

LDWDW

1–0Full-time recap

Lazio

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Lazio
Shots	8 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.5 xG/match	1.43 xG/match▲
Possession	34%	66%
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.16 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.8 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fiorentina

1Draws

0Lazio

7 Jan 2026Lazio — Fiorentina · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 5 · 6 too close

1.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲0.94 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/51.29 xG/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/50.82 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3211 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3213.3 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲3.88 shots/match

4.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.16 shots/match

52%Possessionseason · 32/3251.1%

4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/323.81 corners/match

4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4 corners/match

2.34 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/272.3 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3210.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲44%

75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3253%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina57.5

Lazio52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina45

Lazio36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina31.7

Lazio49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina67.5

Lazio7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina60

Lazio42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina65

Lazio22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina49.4

Lazio28.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.6 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.29 xG/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

46.6%Possession5/553%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.29 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match

48.9%Possession10/1052%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/51.6 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

1.16 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲0.94 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.29 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots32/3211 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲3.88 shots/match

52%Possession32/3251.1%

4.56 corners/matchCorners32/323.81 corners/match

2.34 cards/matchCards29/272.3 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.63 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.75 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.8 shots/match▲Shots16/169.88 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.38 shots/match

52.9%Possession16/1651.8%

5.63 corners/matchCorners16/163.06 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls16/169.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

Fiorentina have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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