PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

WWDDW
2–0Full-time recap

Napoli

WLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaNapoli
Shots11 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.45 corners/match▲CornersBologna · Napoli5.82 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBolognaNapoliBaseline
Corners5.45 corners/match5.82 corners/match4.27 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 4 · 6 too close

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/110.91 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲14.2 shots/match
9.45 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1111 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.18 shots/match
2.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲2.64 shots/match
57.1%Possessionseason · 11/1158.8%
5.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.82 corners/match
3.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/113.18 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲1.45 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1136%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna67.5
Napoli82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna69.2
Napoli81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna89.2
Napoli77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna32.5
Napoli47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna67.5
Napoli31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna72.5
Napoli85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna66.2
Napoli75.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
57%Possession5/555%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.3 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
57.9%Possession10/1058.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.45 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/110.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.18 shots/match
57.1%Possession11/1158.8%
5.45 corners/matchCorners11/115.82 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCards11/111.45 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/61.17 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/614.3 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲4.83 shots/match
55.6%Possession5/659.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/65.67 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/61.17 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/612.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.88 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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