PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Milan vs Inter · Serie A

Milan

WWDDW
vsPre-match analysis

Inter

WWWWD

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
23
Expected goals
1.372.73
Shots
12.823.2
Possession
60.6%63%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second reading clears the same sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Inter23.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanInterBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match23.2 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match11.4 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 5 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesInter5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 3 goals/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.37 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 2.73 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 23.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 7.4 shots/match
60.6%Possession5/5● 63%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6.2 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/56.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Milan
1Draws
1Inter
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–0
Inter — Milan · Serie A0–1
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–1
Inter — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanInter
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMilan — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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